Saturday, October 13, 2012

Roswell vs. Circleville

It has been suggested that a find of a weather balloon sometime prior to July 5, 1947, is similar to that made in Roswell a few days later. A story, headlined, “Flying Disc Believed Found on Pickaway [Ohio] Farm,” published on July 5, 1947, in the Circleville Herald, is similar to that published on July 8 by many newspapers around the county including the Roswell Daily Record. It is believed that this is, in a similar sense, the Roswell story and how the same explanation can be applied in Roswell that was applied in Ohio.

That short article in the Ohio newspaper and later picked up by other media said:

One of the flying discs puzzling aviators all over the United States was believed Saturday to have been found on a Pickaway County farm.
Sherman Campbell who lives on Westfall Road in Wayne Township, near the Pickaway-Rose county line reported the finding of a star-shaped silver foil covered object which he believed is one of the mystery “flying saucers.” While working in the field he spotted a strange object. He described his find as 50 inches high, 48 inches wide and weighing about 2 lbs. He said the silver foil was stretched over a wooded frame. The star-shaped object had 6 points.
He said there was a balloon attached which had deflated and there was no way of knowing how big it was. Discovery of the object was the first reported in the country. A Coast Guardsman on the West Coast reported photographing one from a distance, but no one has seen a flying disc close.

It is quite clear from the article that Campbell recognized it for what it was when he found it, meaning that he knew that it was a balloon-borne device, and he had the balloon. He was not talking about anything else and the original description, meaning the first reporting of it, is quite clear. He thought that when airborne, the six-pointed star, if spinning, could give the impression of a disc shape in bright sunlight.
Contrast this to the press release that was put out by Walter Haut, on orders from Colonel Blanchard. Here too, it is claimed that they had recovered a flying disc, but they believed, it seems, that a balloon and radar target did not explain it.
The Associated Press version, as it appeared in a number of west coast newspapers said:

The many rumors regarding the flying disc became a reality yesterday when the intelligence office of the 509th Bomb Group of the Eighth Air Force, Roswell Army Air Field, was fortunate enough to gain possession of a disc through the cooperation of one of the local ranchers and the sheriff’s office of Chavez County.
The flying object landed on a ranch near Roswell sometime last week. Not having phone facilities, the rancher stored the disc until such time as he was able to contact the sheriff’s office, who in turn notified Major Jesse A. Marcel of the 509th Bomb Group Intelligence Office.
Action was immediately taken and the disc was picked up at the rancher’s home. It was inspected at the Roswell Army Air Field and subsequently loaned by Major Marcel to higher headquarters.

There is no clue here that any of those involved, the rancher, Brazel; the sheriff, Wilcox; the intelligence officer, Marcel; or the base commander, Blanchard, knew it was a balloon or balloon-borne device. By the time we get to Ramey’s office, and we have photographs of the alleged debris, it is quite clear that it is a balloon and radar target. The blackened balloon can be seen in the picture as well.
Campbell knew what it was when he found it, and according to later articles, the sheriff knew what it was when he saw it, and later the object found in Ohio was displayed in the newspaper office. They didn’t notify the military, and although the story was widely reported in Ohio, no military officers, no FBI agents, and no local authorities arrived to take charge of the debris. It was eventually returned to Campbell, at least according to what his daughter told me twenty some years ago.
The other report from Roswell, that is the original United Press bulletin, said:

Roswell, N.M. – The army air forces here today announced a flying disc had been found on a ranch near Roswell and is in army possession.
The Intelligence office reports that it gained possession of the ‘Dis:’ [sic] through the cooperation of a Roswell rancher and Sheriff George Wilson [sic] of Roswell.
The disc landed on a ranch near Roswell sometime last week. Not having phone facilities, the rancher, whose name has not yet been obtained, stored the disc until such time as he was able to contact the Roswell sheriff’s office.
The sheriff’s office notified a major of the 509th Intelligence Office.
Action was taken immediately and the disc was picked up at the rancher’s home and taken to the Roswell Air Base. Following examination, the disc was flown by intelligence officers in a superfortress (B-29) to an undisclosed “Higher Headquarters.”
The air base has refused to give details of construction of the disc or its appearance.
Residents near the ranch on which the disc was found reported seeing a strange blue light several days ago about three o’clock in the morning. 

Again, the contrast is startling. In Ohio, there was a description of the object found, and there is no one confusing it for something more than it is, or was. In Roswell, though many had examined the debris, there is no clue that this might be a balloon and radar target. Just several people, including many who should have known better, unable to identify what turned out to be, if we accept the cover story, a weather balloon.
Photo of balloon and rawin from
the Circleville newspaper.
You have to ask yourself, how is it that those in Ohio knew that it was a balloon and those in New Mexico did not? Isn’t it interesting that both stories talk of the balloon debris being found “last week,” though in Roswell that was eventually changed to “three weeks ago”? Isn’t it interesting that eventually, the balloon and radar reflector are displayed in Fort Worth, but not in Roswell? And if our old friend Sheridan Cavitt is to be believed, he knew the instant he saw it what it was, but made no attempt to inform either Marcel or Blanchard. Why did he remain mum, when he was with Marcel out in the field, or when he, with Marcel and some of the wreckage were examined by Blanchard in his office on the morning of July 8?
You might ask yourself (and I do, risking the wrath of the skeptics), did those in Roswell, who might well have known about the Circleville case, take a cue from there, changing the storyline so that it mimicked that in Ohio to hide the facts in New Mexico? Did they change the narrative so that reporters, and civilians, would not be inclined to ask the difficult questions that were then never asked?  
The two storylines are interesting, to say the least. Of course the spin put on them takes you in a direction that you might wish to take… that is, they are so similar that Roswell is clearly a balloon… or they are similar to a point, but there is no mention of the balloon debris in the first of the Roswell stories. You might say that the Ohio report seems to underscore the mundane nature of the debris found in Roswell. The two stories are the same… and yet, they are not.
But the real question… the real difference…  is the reaction of the military to these two events. At Circleville they ignored it. Clearly it is a balloon and posed no threat. The day after the press release in Roswell, both the Army and the Navy begin to suppress stories of the flying saucers. Why would they do that? What is the difference here? Why, suddenly, on July 9 do they care that people are seeing flying saucers but they had not cared prior to that?

34 comments:

Lance said...

Kevin,

Yes, this does fit precisely into the narrative that I have been offering here recently--it underlines it.

Yes, it was known immediately that the Roswell debris was not a spaceship or anything else exotic BUT it just might have been (for the men involved) related to the flying saucer craze that was all over the news and building by the time of the Roswell press release.

Here we have indisputable evidence that other folks thought the same thing when they found balloon/foil debris. Additionally the Roswell debris had the added "benefit" of having no identifying marks and some strange symbols upon it.

By the time of the Roswell press release there were several accounts of similar stuff being called "flying disks", including at least two in the Roswell paper on the morning of the press release.

Roswell believers take their own deeply held feelings about UFO's and improperly place them into the minds of our 1947 protagonists.

It isn't the believer's idea of a flying saucer THEREFORE these men would have to be idiots to not see that this stuff doesn't come from another world like flying saucers are supposed to.

This is Roswell in a nutshell.

Lance

cda said...

There are diferences in the two events.

1. The Circleville radar target was intact. The Roswell one was not, and thus less recognisable than the Circleville one.

2. The Circleville object did not need military attention because the finder recognised its identity at once.

3. The attached balloon was present at Circleville, whereas the attached balloons were widely scattered and broken up at Roswell.

4. The press report on Circleville does not say when the object was discovered. It does not say "last week" (as you claim), nor does it give any day of discovery. It only gives the day it was reported (to whom?).

5. Brazel only heard flying disc 'rumors' when he visited Corona (and not until nearly 3 weeks AFTER he discovered the debris) whereas Campbell presumably knew about them before he made his find. Campbell did not live on a remote desert ranch.

Just because one object was quickly recognisable it does not follow that another, similar, one but in quite different circumstances, would be.

Had Campbell not recognised his object and had he taken it into his sheriff or even the nearest AF base, you might well have had a similar situation occurring as happened at Roswell and Fort Worth. But there again it might not. We simply do not know.

By the way, do you accept what Campbell's daughter told you 40+ years after the event? The same argument applies to her as to the 'witnesses' at Roswell. Was it accurate recall or not? (Answer: you have no way of knowing).

Bob Koford said...

By late June, secretly, some in the military already seemed aware of the need for a classified program to investigate the saucers. According to the early "Estimates", based almost entirely on military witnesses, which they trusted, not hysterical civilians, the disc scare began for the military in May. This is two months prior to the events in Ohio, and Roswell.

Several formerly classified documents, produced by the first National Security groups (ICAPS, IAC, NIA, etc.), reveal concern for, and over creating a Psychological Warfare group to create PSYOPS to be used "...against the American people". The AAF had representatives in some of those early meetings. Eventually, by early 1950, the Psychological Strategy Board was created. Before this, it had been different Ad Hoc groups making psyops policy.

By July 30th, Colonel Garrett produces "Estimate on Flying Discs" (see: UFOs AND GOVERNMENT, a Historical Inquiry; by Michael Swords, and Robert Powell, and at least seven other contributors, pages 473-500)

"...(a) This "flying saucer" situation is not all imaginary or seeing too much in some natural phenomenon. Something is really flying around (b) Lack of topside inquiries when compared to the prompt and demanding inquiries that have originated topside upon former events, give more than ordinary weight to the possibility that this is a domestic project, about which the President, etc. know".

We know that after careful checking with all relevant groups, Air Force Intelligence did not locate any group to account for the "secret projects" explanation. The shift in belief, for the explanation, at that point, seems to have been altered toward the Soviets.

The Ohio story stresses to us that there was no civilian panic, and it raises the mystique surrounding the Roswell Press release all the more.

Thanks,
Bob

David Rudiak said...

cda wrote: (part 1 of 2)
There are diferences in the two events.
1. The Circleville radar target was intact. The Roswell one was not, and thus less recognisable than the Circleville one.


Any call to a weather officer describing it as made of balsa wood and covered with foil-paper with a weather balloon nearby would have cinched the identity, even if the idiots at Roswell were too stupid to figure it out on their own.

And since it was broken up, then how do you explain Ramey's various quoted comments BEFORE he claimed it was IDed that the object was "hexagonal"? Such a description would apply ONLY to an intact and assembled Rawin target, not a broken up one lying flat on his office floor.

http://www.roswellproof.com/Rameys_hexagon_story.html

2. The Circleville object did not need military attention because the finder recognised its identity at once.

Sherman Campbell recognized it must have been some sort of weather balloon because there was a weather balloon neck still attached to the radar target. But he didn't know about radar targets and made no such ID. Mere phone calls to military weather experts by the local sheriff and newspapers, however, did result in instant ID's. So the military did get involved, but unlike the fools at Roswell, weren't fooled for a microsecond.

3. The attached balloon was present at Circleville, whereas the attached balloons were widely scattered and broken up at Roswell.

An attached PARTIAL ballon was present at Circleville (balloon neck).

There was an ENTIRE weather balloon present in Ramey's office. How did Brazel's "rubber strips" and "small pieces' of rubber scattered over a large area become a complete balloon in Ramey's office? Maybe you should be asking THAT question.

Brazel NEVER described an intact weather balloon, instead saying he had found two other weather observation balloons on his ranch and this didn't resembled them in ANY way. How could an intact weather balloon in Ramey's office not resemble those other weather balloons Brazel found? How could Brazel fail to mention it? Maybe you should be asking THOSE questions as well.

And I notice how you snuck in Brazel finding "balloons". Where did Brazel say he found multiple balloons? Where did anyone else back then say they found multiple balloons? Instead, Brazel mentioned only "rubber strips" and small "rubber pieces" and said he surmised that maybe it was held up by one balloon (then denied he had found a balloon), and Ramey's official story in Fort Worth was that it was an ordinary singular weather balloon and radar target used by weather services all over the country (seconded by his weather officer Newton, then and now), or NO different from the Circleville device.

Newton personally told me and other researchers that it was an ordinary singular weather balloon and rawin target in Ramey's office that was NO different from and could have come from any number of weather stations, and he didn't believe in the Project Mogul explanation.

Again, no multiple balloons mentioned back in 1947. That is historical revisionism added by the USAF counterintel debunkers with their Project Mogul story in 1994.

4. The press report on Circleville does not say when the object was discovered. It does not say "last week" (as you claim), nor does it give any day of discovery. It only gives the day it was reported (to whom?).

Well actually it was probably found on the 4th or 5th, but how is this in any way relevant to anything?

David Rudiak said...

(part 2 of 2)

5. Brazel only heard flying disc 'rumors' when he visited Corona (and not until nearly 3 weeks AFTER he discovered the debris) whereas Campbell presumably knew about them before he made his find. Campbell did not live on a remote desert ranch.

So what? Ramey showed a complete weather balloon in his office and said that is what Brazel found. Brazel finds a weather balloon and can't recognize it after finding two others on his property? Sherman Campbell knew it was a weather balloon simply from the remaining balloon neck.

Just because one object was quickly recognisable it does not follow that another, similar, one but in quite different circumstances, would be.

How quickly you again forget the weather balloon in Ramey's office. How could that rube Brazel not recognize it when he had found others? Why wouldn't he mention finding it, instead of only "rubber strips" and little bits and pieces of rubber? How could Marcel, Cavitt, Blanchard, etc., not recognize it?

More of your drooling idiot theory for Roswell.

Had Campbell not recognised his object and had he taken it into his sheriff or even the nearest AF base, you might well have had a similar situation occurring as happened at Roswell and Fort Worth. But there again it might not. We simply do not know.

Campbell wasn't fooled because it had that rubber balloon neck attacked to it. The Campbell discovery WAS reported to the local sheriff who also wasn't fooled. Some sort of weather balloon.

It was reported to the local newspapers. They weren't fooled either. Some sort of weather balloon.

When calls were made by the same people to military weather people, they weren't fooled and instantly IDed it.

Only in Roswell were another farmer, who had previously found 2 weather balloons, the local sheriff, the local base intelligence office, the local base commander, the 8th AAF head who ordered it flown to Fort Worth the morning of the 8th, all fooled, even though they had a complete balloon (remember those Ramey office photos cda?), not even a partial one from Circleville. (Of course with Sheriff Wilcox, it was hard to tell, because his story was that Brazel came in saying he found a "weather meter", whereas Brazel's contradictory story was that he told the sheriff that maybe he had found a flying disc.)

So skeptical drooling idiot theory again. Nobody at Circleville was fooled, but EVERYBODY at Roswell was, even with a complete weather balloon at their disposal. Must have been heat stroke.

Lance said...

Who knows if Rudiak is willfully ignoring what is being said by us here...

Again--the Roswell players knew that these were parts of balloons and sticks and foil paper, etc.

But they also thought that the stuff was part of the flying disc frenzy that was all over the news.

There is no "drooling idiot" theory needed in the skeptical scenario.

Period.

Lance

David Rudiak said...

Lance wrote:
Who knows if Rudiak is willfully ignoring what is being said by us here...

Again--the Roswell players knew that these were parts of balloons and sticks and foil paper, etc.

But they also thought that the stuff was part of the flying disc frenzy that was all over the news.

There is no "drooling idiot" theory needed in the skeptical scenario.


The "skeptical" scenario always requires "drooling idiot" theory to make it work. I put "skeptical" in quotes because what keeps getting proposed requires a deliberate suspension of critical thinking. We must ignore what participants really said then and in the present, we must ignore all the serious contradictions in the official story, and we must also pretend that highly experience and intelligent people would behave in irrational ways.

It is quite clear from later testimony of Marcel Sr. and Jr. that Sr. came home from the field believing he had the debris from an actual flying saucer, NOT any sort of balloon. Jr. shares that opinion, and neither man described seeing what Ramey displayed in his office, namely a complete weather balloon and a balsa wood radar target kite covered with foil paper.

But even ignoring that, Lance's "skeptical" scenario requires a PLAUSIBLE explanation why Blanchard would call the object recovered a "flying disc" instead of the balloon that Lance claims they always knew that they had.

In the Circleville case, EVERYBODY from Sherman Campbell on up immediately recognized it as some sort of balloon, because, duhhh, there was a bit of the weather balloon still attached. The only thing Campbell and some other suggested was the foil star-shaped contraption attached to it might explain the flying disc reports. However, the AAF weather people who were contacted didn't buy that explanation. One said their weather balloons wouldn't explained the high speeds attributed to the saucers.

But in Roswell, NOBODY treats what Brazel found as some sort of balloon, including Brazel. In fact, Brazel finally disavows his own balloon story, saying he had previously found two and this didn't resemble in "any way" what he had previously found.

But Ramey showed a complete weather balloon, which should have exactly matched what Brazel had previously found. Brazel instead went to the sheriff saying that maybe he found a flying disc, not a balloon. And Brazel NEVER said he found a complete balloon, just small pieces of rubber scattered over a wide area. (One of those serious contradictions that "skeptics" like Lance continue to ignore. And I'm still waiting for Lance to explain why Brazel said he found no balloon rigging of any kind, when a real Mogul should have left several hundred yards behind, another serious contradiction Lance and others try to sweep under the rug.)

And if Marcel, Cavitt, Blanchard, etc. immediately recognized it as a balloon of some type, why didn't Blanchard's press release reflect that simple fact? The release should have said that a rancher came to the Sheriff reporting a flying disc but investigation by the base revealed that it was a weather observation balloon. End of story. But that's not what was said, was it?

I suppose the uncritical skeptics will now probably propose that it was all Walter Haut's fault, that Blanchard meant for the release to say something like that but Haut rewrote it for sensationalism.

Of course, that ignores the fact that would have broken all protocol and Haut's ass would have been handed to him. As Haut told me, any press release of any import would ALWAYS go back to Blanchard's office for review by Blanchard personally or his adjutant before final approval. Why in this one instance would Haut ignore what he always routinely did?

Yes, "skeptical" theory ALWAYS requires at least one or more drooling idiots in the case of Roswell in order to make the scenarios work.

Lance said...

This is so ridiculous. Dr. Rudiak asks for:

"a PLAUSIBLE explanation why Blanchard would call the object recovered a "flying disc" instead of the balloon that Lance claims they always knew that they had.

Why don't you require the same thing for Circleville. They called theirs a flying disk, too or the foil paper in Texas also called a flying disk? Were those people drooling idiots?

The conspiracist is forced to make dubious correlations in order to support his religion: I don't know why this happened THEREFORE Aliens!

Notice how this is the construction of virtually every argument above:

Marcel and Jr. didn't exactly describe the debris as Rudiak wishes (their sticks were SPACE sticks and their foil was SAUCER foil) therefore ALIENS!


Brazel didn't say specifically that he found a complete balloon therefore ALIENS. We know precious little of what Brazel said. In general he described the debris as depicted in the photos. He just didn't say it in the exact way that David insists he must therefore Aliens.

Dr. Rudiak again misunderstands what I am suggesting (and that may be my fault). The debris as found was not seen as exotic. The individual components were seen as what they were. But together (perhaps because of the lack of identifying marks and the strange tape) the thing was seen as a flying disk, some sort of contraption made of foil and sticks and balloons.

This happened, I suggest, because of the times. It might not have happened a few days earlier or later but because of the news being full of flying disks popping up all over, our players in Roswell identified the stuff as a flying disk. It wasn't thought of as just a weather balloon but something more so maybe that straw man can put away?

Again, I realize that proponents don't agree with this scenario but at least attack it for what it actually proposes.

All the stuff Rudiak writes above about Haut was never mentioned above. David simply puts words in skeptics mouths that they never said.

I have asked Dr. Rudiak to support several of his claims recently here and he has not once done so.

Many of Dr. Rudiak's arguments about the debris presuppose that the stuff we see in the pictures would have to be ALL of the stuff that got picked up. Using the conspiracy mindset, he says we don't see this in the photos therefore SAUCERS.

I ask him once again how he knows that everything in the photos MUST show all of the debris picked up?

It really is too bad this can't be argued in person. It would be so easy to catch the fallacies as they are uttered than it is to unravel the stuff delivered here in overflowing two part buckets.

Lance









cda said...

We can all agree that Haut's press release was unnecessary and premature. The most reasonable answer for this is that Blanchard wanted to get something out quickly, since he knew a civilian had reported finding a landed object or objects which he could not identify.

There was every likelihood Wilcox would have issued his own release. The Roswell AAF would not have appreciated that at all. It would mean they had missed out on being first with the news.

I agree that those at Roswell probably did recognise the debris for what it was (as did those at Circleville) but had lingering slight doubts because of the broken-up nature of the object.

There is absolutely no need to invoke some 'drooling idiots' theory to explain their actions. Neither is the fact that these 509th guys served with distinction in WW2 in the Pacific (as Friedman and DR keep telling us) of any relevance.

People can get excited and over-enthusiastic at times. This was one of those times.

Rather than going into each and every detail that DR raises about my comparison of Circleville with Roswell, perhaps he can explain why Brazel kept a pile of this supposed spaceship junk under some brush for 3 weeks before reporting it, and why he and Marcel spent time trying to make a kite out of it. (Kites do NOT travel to earth from Zeta Reticuli or even Alpha Centauri, do they?)

Probably not all the stuff was in the Ft Worth photos. Some of it was still (allegedly) in the plane. But we cannot say for sure.

What I want to know is this: Name someone who saw BOTH the real stuff and the substituted balloon. DuBose did not, Newton did not, Marcel supposedly did, but even he contradicts himself.

And Marcel NEVER claimed at the time that he recovered anything remotely like an ET craft. Not that he knew what such a thing looked like anyway! (He didn't 30+ years later, either). Neither did anyone else, and nor does anyone today. Except our own spacecraft, of course.

And as for Blanchard taking 2-weeks leave when he and others realised that what had been found was a crashed ET craft, words fail me.

cda said...

I should add that Roswell is far from the only case where 'drooling idiots' cocked up something they ought not to have done. (If in fact they did cock it up).

Some 20 years ago there was an odd conundrum going the rounds called the 'Monty Hall Problem', a question on probabilities. You would expect mathematical experts to get the right answer very quickly. Not only did many get it wrong but some were PhDs and refused to admit their mistake.

Eventually it was pointed out to them and some did reverse their views. A few never did. It was a good example of how even the best brains CAN be fooled now and again, and stubbornly refuse to concede this.

Since this is decidedly off-topic, I will say no more.

Chuck Finley said...

Kevin-

What always gave me pause, when reflecting upon the initial reaction of the 509th investigators, has to do with the fact that these guys had gone through WW2, and certainly, to my mind, had seen just about all the Army Air Force had in it's inventory...

(I recall Walter Haut telling me how during his B-29 runs over Japan, the upstairs cockpit guys would kick him awake when the target approached...)

SO..now it is 1947, and the 509th has been charged with responsibility for the complete US nuclear arsenal.

They were just as human as some of us, but I find it questionable that they would not recognize a GD weather balloon.... really, think about it...

Lance said...

Chuck,

I can more or less agree with your comments above.

It's not that they didn't recognize that this was a balloon and foll and sticks. It's just that they thought (just like the numerous documented instances discussed here from the newspapers) that this debris was part of the flying saucer craze that was all over the papers.

I have suggested that the torn up condition , the lack of identification and the strange tape may have contributed to this thought. They decided (under the scenario that I am proposing) that the contraption, which was very like the "disks" being described in the paper was one of the disks, too.

Lance

Gilles Fernandez said...

Lance,
"
I have suggested that the torn up condition , the lack of identification and the strange tape may have contributed to this thought. They decided (under the scenario that I am proposing) that the contraption, which was very like the "disks" being described in the paper was one of the disks, too"

Yep: That's more or less what I proposed too in my humble 2010 book.
The radar-target(s) was what it seems to have the more "impressed" Brazel and Marcel. Christopher remembered us that Marcel and Brazel tried to assemble the debris to form a kite. Of course, they have not in mind an ET craft when doing that lol.
p.119 my book, I wrote for example (hard to translate):
"The little number of protagonists thought that the debris were an excellent candidat to "these things talked about in the newspapers", in the social and semantic context associated to the sighting wave of "Flying Saucers".

The press release was done in that context and it could be explained by what Christopher indeed mentionned. He wrote : "The most reasonable answer for this is that Blanchard wanted to get something out quickly, since he knew a civilian had reported finding a landed object or objects which he could not identify."

Another important thing imho mentionned here in Kevin's blog ( I insisted too in my little august 2010 pdf online here and p.5 http://scepticismescientifique.blogspot.fr/2010/09/reponse-la-lecture-critique-dalain.html ) ,
is that there was in the Roswell Morning Dispatch, the same day of the press release, the Texas "recovery" mentionned, speaking and writting about "one piece loocked like tin foil".
We can assume the Roswell protagonists have readed it.

We understand the debris (ML307 mainly) were then an excellent candidat and were "matching" with those so-called Flying Saucers the newpapers were speacking about in that period.

The protagonists acted legitimaly imho. As you, I think the tape and strange marks could have intrigated them.
But they have not in mind "an ET craft" when acting or when releasing to the press! As probably Dr Rudiak believes it was the case?

No need of "drolling idiots" argument, Dr Rudiak is insisting as if "we are mocking" the 509th or dunno what.

Of course, the ETH proponents and the DreamTeam will never accept such "scenario", but I'm humblely and for what it could represent very in connexion with you, CDA, etc. and your approach.

AmitiƩs,

Gilles Fernandez

Lance said...

Yes, Gilles.

I should apologize if it sounds like I am trying to claim ownership of this idea.

I think skeptics have rarely spelled out out a response to the very reasonable question: "Why the press release?"

I am pleased to hear that you also came to this conclusion!

Lance

David Rudiak said...

Lance wrote:
I have suggested that the torn up condition , the lack of identification and the strange tape may have contributed to this thought. They decided (under the scenario that I am proposing) that the contraption, which was very like the "disks" being described in the paper was one of the disks, too.

Geez Lance, all Ramey showed was a weather balloon and broken up radar target. On the one hand, you admit that the morons at Roswell recognized it for what it was (could it have been that weather balloon?), yet, but then you have this bizarre theory that knowing this they would still put out a press release saying identifying it as a flying disc.

No, if they bothered with a press release at all over such a trivial find to inform the local Roswell hicks what had happened, the release would have said a rancher reported to the Sheriff that he found a "flying disc," the Sheriff reported it to the base, the base investigated and determined it to be a weather observation balloon.

Instead, the press release referred to the object MULTIPLE times as a "disc", never once saying anything about it being a balloon.

In the case of Circleville, the farmer, Sherman Campbell said he knew from the gitgo that it was a weather balloon of some type because the remains of the balloon were still attached. However he surmised that MAYBE the foil kite that the balloon carried might explain the flying disc reports.

When the newspapers contacted local AAF weather people, over the phone they were able to instantly identify the balloon and kite as being a radar wind sounding device.

It doesn't matter whether the Rawin kite is intact or broken up. It's made of balsa wood sticks and covered with foil paper. That's all the weather guys would need to know, in addition to the attached weather balloon.

In addition, one of them when asked whether they explained the flying discs said he seriously doubted it because the balloons traveled so slowly, whereas the reported discs were said to travel at very high speeds. The chief civilian weather forecaster said pretty much the same thing--the discs were said to travel at supersonic speed. The weather guys knew the high-speed descriptions for the discs. So did Gen. Ramey and his intel chief Col. Kalberer a week earlier when they were mocking the disc reports. But nobody at Roswell knew this simple, widely reported detail?

And let me repeat, one of Marcel's MO's was radar intelligence officer. He probably also saw a million of these things being launched at Kwajalein base, when he was stationed there the previous year during the Bikini A-bomb tests. The wind data gathered from the rawins would have been a key componenent of the intelligence briefings he provided for the 509th and 8th AAF.

I've been to Kwajalein base. Like all the Marshall atoll islands, it is low-lying, flat, and small. Because of all the runways, the base is also wide-open. A weather balloon anywhere at the base could be easily seen by anybody there. POINT: Marcel would almost certainly have known what a rawin target was. Some photos of Kwajalein base during Operation Crossroads, showing a balloon launch there and the briefing room run by Marcel:

www.roswellproof.homestead.com/marcel_crossroads.html

Finally, you continue to call the tape "strange". Why was it so "strange"? The UP Roswell story July 9 said those who had allegedly seen it described it as paper tape with flower patterns and the letters "D.P."

Wow, that's really "strange", so "strange" that the officers at Roswell, who you say, knew what they had, were still somehow confused by it (along with the broken radar target) and morphed it into a "disc", "disc", "disc" in the press release without a single mention of anything else.

Drooling idiot theory again.

Gilles Fernandez said...

Ho no, Lance, I have had never in my mind your are claiming ownership of an idea. I suppose I'm not the owner too! I readed here or there to reach my own conclusions, mainly from you, Tim Printy, CDA, Pflock, Lagrange, Kottmeyer, Todd, etc. I dunno who could be the "owner" of such a prosaic scenario and who cares? ^^

It seems several of us (called the UFO Skeptics) are reaching the same "conclusion" or "big picture" of the 1947 Roswell's event and scenario, "diametricaly" opposed to the one of the DreamTeam or ETH-proponents. That's all, cool and "precious" imho for the critical thinking.

Gilles

Lance said...

As we have shown, and yet as you see above Dr. Rudiak somehow ignores, people did call this weather balloon debris a flying disc. That is EXACTLY what happened in Circleville.

From the Circleville Herald:

"One of the “flying discs” which have been puzzling aviators all over the United States was believed Saturday to have been found on a Pickaway county farm.
Sherman Campbell, who lives on the Westfall road in Wayne township, near the Pickaway-Ross county line, reported the finding of a star-shaped silver foil covered object which he believes is one of the mysterious “flying saucers.”

While working in the field he spotted a strange object. He described his find as 50 inches high, 48 inches wide and weighing about two pounds. He said the silver foil was stretched over a wooden frame. The star-shaped object had six points.

He said there was a balloon attached which had deflated and there was no way of knowing how big it was."

This is an almost perfect analog of what happened in Roswell. These guys knew it wasn't anything more than a balloon and foil target yet they STILL called it a "flying disk".

I honestly have no ides how Roswell buffs look at this and decide that their mythology is not related.

See how Rudiak's arguments are composed of his "I think this should have happened THEREFORE ALIENS!" technique?

He has to ignore the stuff that has been documented and tell us what should have happened--something that recently we were able to clearly see in a spectacular way that Rudiak is just not good at.

Tell me more of the sun''s effect on neoprene in New Mexico, Dr Rudiak, and please add in more numbers that you have made up!

Please also notice that he again insists that the stuff in the photos is ALL of the debris. I asked above for him to support this position. He doesn't. And can't.

Lance






cda said...

Perhaps we should reconsider everything and ask ourselves:

What would have happened at Roswell and Ft Worth military bases in the two weeks following July 8 if the recovered debris was REALLY BELIEVED to have come from an ET craft? What would have happened if real unidentified bodies were found and were thought to be ET?

I have my own ideas. Among other things there would have been a myriad of reports and documentation. And no, Blanchard would certainly NOT have gone on leave!

I realise this is off-topic.

Gilles Fernandez said...

David Rudiak: " Some photos of Kwajalein base during Operation Crossroads, showing a balloon launch there and the briefing room run by Marcel" or "Because Roswell debunkers claim that Marcel somehow misidentified common weather balloon debris and exaggerated into exotic flying saucer material"

Your operation Crossroad picture doesn't show a Radar-target attached to a balloon, so that's irrelevant. Tim Printy already discussed it here and wrote:

I am sure they used some radar targets during Crossroads but it is clear from this photograph, that not all weather balloon launches employed such equipment, which lowers the odds that Marcel could have stumbled across a balloon launch that actually employed an ML-307 reflector.

"The idea that radar school or Operation Crossroads taught Marcel about radar reflector targets is nothing more than another myth generated by UFO proponents in order to eliminate this likely explanation for the Roswell incident."

http://home.comcast.net/~tprinty/UFO/Rosmyths.htm

Regards,
Gilles

Gilles Fernandez said...

Christopher wrote: "I have my own ideas. Among other things there would have been a myriad of reports and documentation." "

Maybe the USA(A)F realized that this E.T. craft was "so stupid" and "without interrest". After all, it crashed.
Then, useless to study it.

It explain why no myriad of documentations and reports for more than 60 years. QED.

May I join the DreamTeam now? Do I well pass the ETH rethoric test "to become a good ETH proponent"?

Sorry, just jocking and off-topic, Kevin. Dont blame me.

Regards,

Gilles

Dennis Toth said...

The editor inside me have to point out that there is no Rose County in Ohio. Its a typo for Ross County.

BTW, it is my understanding that the procedure used in Circleville was the standard Army Air Core (then Air Force) procedure for recovering a downed balloon. The procedure used (by all accounts) at Roswell is the standard procedure for any type of unknown or secret craft with causalities. I learned this from a person who had done work in recovery efforts of Air Force "material." They didn't know anything one way or the other about Roswell, but they outlined the three tiers of standard procedures and the one used at Roswell was the one I just described.

Doesn't really tell you much about what came down, but it does tell you that it was a craft and had something with it. Of course, that leaves open all sorts of possibilities (except for a lousy balloon).

KRandle said...

Dennis

The editor in me has to point out that in 1947 it was the Army Air Forces, and had been since the Army Air Corps grew to such size in 1942. Originally the Air Corps was a branch of the Army in the same way that Infantry or Armor were branches of the Army.

Gentlemen -

This conversation is growing stagnant. It is the same tired rhetoric with neither side willing to budge an inch. You all have to ask yourselves who is more rigid in his thinking (and I say his because none of the participants is female). Let's close it down now, before I really become annoyed.

Dennis Toth said...

Kevin,

You are a good editor. I realized that screw up after posting and kind of thought you would correct me. Oh well, now people can quickly tell which one of us has actually been in the military. It sure ain't me.

Don said...

Toth wrote "The procedure used (by all accounts) at Roswell is the standard procedure for any type of unknown or secret craft with causalities. I learned this from a person who had done work in recovery efforts of Air Force "material."

What is interesting is the initial investigation team was 2/3 CIC agents (according to The Roswell Report), Cavitt and Rickett.

This indicates the RAAF (or Ft Worth) considered the report might be of the crash of a military aircraft or an unknown. The CIC special agents would be looking for evidence of espionage or sabotage. I've posted about this before.

Earlier this month the Deseret News published a story about a local man who was celebrating his 100th birthday.

"Boyce also served in the military during World War II in the Counter Intelligence Corps. He served stateside investigating military plane crashes to determine whether the nation's enemies had any role in the accidents."

Roswell was postwar, but I don't think the procedure was abandoned.

Regards,

Don

David Rudiak said...

Using both the head intelligence officer and the head of the CIC at Roswell also doesn't make sense to pick up at best only a few pounds of mundane balloon debris.

According to Marcel, they investigated because when Marcel discussed what Brazel had told him with Blanchard (or what Brazel had shown him), they agreed it sounded like the crash of an unusual aircraft of some kind (balloon rubber, balsa wood, and foil-paper being such exotic stuff to them). Blanchard ordered Cavitt to go out as well because Brazel had also described such a huge quantity of debris and Marcel would need help. Also, according to Marcel, he and Cavitt went in two separate vehicles (and they returned separately), again inconsistent with recovering only a few pounds of balloon debris.

When rancher Sid West reported finding the remains of Mogul #6 to Alamogordo (amazing how he figured that out and Brazel couldn't--maybe because Mogul #4 was imaginary), Crary's diary said they sent two guys out in a jeep to get the remains. They weren't the two top intelligence guys at Alamogordo, that's for sure.

Rickett didn't get involved until after Marcel and Cavitt had returned. By then, Rickett said heavy security had been thrown up, they had to go through several checkpoints with MPs armed with machine guns, and a large group of men were sweeping the area picking up more debris (these nonexistent Mogul balloons can have as much debris as you can imagine). Rickett handled some of the metallic-looking debris and agreed it was unlike anything he had seen before, since it appeared to be a thin metal that he couldn't bend. (Obviously that foil-paper chewing gum wrapper stuff was highly exotic to the idiots at Roswell.)

Cavitt changing the story, claimed he only went out with Rickett, never met Brazel, raising the question how he ever found the place without Brazel's help. And he found only a tiny balloon crash no bigger than his living room. This is after he denied ever being stationed at Roswell or involved in any way.

This is the star witness for the skeptics.

Gilles Fernandez said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Gilles Fernandez said...

David,
"This is the star witness for the skeptics."

I remember the time when Kaufmann, Ragsdale and Anderson were the star witnesses for some the Roswell DreamTeam stars.
Do you need a "booster shot" or?

Your constant and boring use of the words "idiot" about the 509th is only a straw man against the "Skeptic's scenario" regarding Roswell case.

"We" never said that. But if you believe to be a good illusionist, well, believe to make illusions.

Regards,

Gilles

Don said...

David wrote: "Blanchard ordered Cavitt to go out as well because Brazel had also described such a huge quantity of debris and Marcel would need help."

Did Marcel say this? If so, he was mistaken. Blanchard had no authority to order Cavitt to do anything. He would inform the CIC on base something had come up that was within their provenance, possibly, assuming the CIC weren't already aware of the situation through their informants on base, or in town.

I know you are aware of this. I'm just clarifying the matter for those reading this who aren't.

Regards,

Don

Alfred Lehmberg said...

"There is no 'drooling idiot' theory needed in the skeptical scenario."

"Period."

Though it _does_ seem to explain it,eh? ...Provides for an ample foundation of it... ... hi-lights the circuitous logic provoking it, and so then adequately illustrating the meme, too.

I would not have said a word, but you used the word "period," Mr Moody, a word used fulsomely by one Dr. McGaha when he is without citation, bereft of reference, wholly clueless, or heaving his usual ungraceful, unsupported, pedantic, and _grasping_ denial ...of the obvious, the reasonable, and the all but unimpeachable. When is is "drooling" if you will.

Lance said...

Hi Alfred,

I should have said "the skeptical scenario as I am presenting it here."

I don't know if that helps but I do get your point. I am not trying to be dogmatic. After all, this entire thing is speculative anyway.

As it is, I am just (along with Gilles and, I think, CDA) presenting a scenario that does by its very construction avoid the straw man "drooling idiot" idea.

Thanks,

Lance

Alfred Lehmberg said...

Dammit! I hate it when you guys are so disarmingly reasonable! No purchase for the literary fang... wholly and disconcertingly derailing. Seriously, more in your camp should take your lead in the ongoing debate... but they don't. They only provide ample demonstration of a dearth of constructive imagination and a facile alacrity regarding their capacity to understand, their aptitude to accept, their ability to incorporate, and their skill to recognize. You might be a rare exception; I hold out hope for you, sincerely. In our jousting hither and yon you prosecute your (I offer hopeless) position as it pertains to the repudiation of multiple categories (seven anyway!) of evidence that Fermi was right! They (not us!) _are_ here. I'm betting you germinate a new humility largely missing from your vociferous compatriots and raise a new flag! It's logical, eh? You have to be right in _every_ incidence; I only have to be correct in one.

cda said...

Lance:

You are a lucky guy.

I recall one case where our friend and fellow debater Alfred Lehmberg castigated someone (forget who) who dared to address Mr Lehmberg by his first name. Obviously you are a valued exception to this.

I don't really understand the Fermi connection, and am not going to try.

Did Fermi ever have anything to say on UFOs anyway?

JAF said...

cda said, "Did Fermi ever have anything to say on UFOs anyway?"

That's probably a reference to the Fermi Paradox. For more info:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox

Here's an excerpt from that page:

In 1950, while working at Los Alamos National Laboratory, Fermi had a casual conversation while walking to lunch with colleagues Emil Konopinski, Edward Teller and Herbert York. The men discussed a recent spate of UFO reports and an Alan Dunn cartoon facetiously blaming the disappearance of municipal trashcans on marauding aliens. They then had a more serious discussion regarding the chances of humans observing faster-than-light travel by some material object within the next ten years, which Teller put at one in a million, but Fermi put closer to one in ten. The conversation shifted to other subjects, until during lunch Fermi suddenly exclaimed, "Where are they?" (alternatively, "Where is everybody?"). One participant recollects that Fermi then made a series of rapid calculations using estimated figures. (Fermi was known for his ability to make good estimates from first principles and minimal data, see Fermi problem.) According to this account, he then concluded that Earth should have been visited long ago and many times over.

KRandle said...

JAF -

You know, the least you could do is use the search feature to see if there has been anything here about the Fermi Paradox. In December 2009 I did a posting on it.

I mean, I put the search feature up to facilitate that sort of thing. Just suggesting...