Saturday, May 31, 2014

People Still Believe in Mogul


Yes, I know we’ve talked about this before but I’m still surprised when there are uncritical statements published about the nonsensical Mogul balloon explanation for the debris found by Mack Brazel. And, while I know it is beating the dead horse because we’ve gone over this multiple times, I just wish to respond to some of those who, without knowing all the details, spout the Mogul line.

The documentation is quite clear. Mogul Flight No. 4, the culprit in all this, was scheduled to be launched about dawn on June 4, 1947. According to the records it was cancelled. It was never launched.

That same record, created by the project leader, Dr. Albert Crary, said that they did fly a cluster of balloons with a sonobuoy attached. A sonobuoy is basically a radio transmitter and microphone. Its job, in this context, was to pick up the sound of high explosives detonated to test that capability. That was all it was. It had nothing to do with radar which some seem to believe it did.

We know, based on the documentation published by the New York University balloon project (which launched these balloons) that in June 1947, they were not allowed to fly them at night or into clouds. The huge arrays, six hundred feet long, could pose a threat to aerial navigation if hidden by the darkness or in clouds. The June launches were made at dawn or shortly thereafter.

There is no record of any data recovered from a Flight No. 4 and it is missing from the records. The next day, June 5, Flight No. 5 was launched and it is recorded as the first successful flight in New Mexico.

Charles Moore, who claimed the title of the man who launched the “Roswell” balloon, using winds aloft data, calculated the flight path of the mythical Flight No. 4, if it had been launched at about dawn. His calculations, based on that incomplete data, showed the balloon would have moved, more or less, toward the site of the Brazel debris field.

Here are the problems. First, a weather front moved through Alamogordo about dawn, changing the winds aloft data and suggesting a different direction for the mythical flight. To fix that problem, and using data obtained from a weather station near Orogrande, New Mexico that had better winds aloft data because of the proximity of the White Sands Missile Range (or Proving Ground in 1947, which I mention so that the nitpickers won’t harp on this), Moore changed the launch time to three in the morning… even though full arrays were forbidden to be flown in the dark by the rules under which they operated. It was the only way he could force the flight path into something that would move in the proper direction.

What this means is that Flight No. 4 was launched before it was cancelled… and if that was the case, then Crary’s diary and field notes would have mentioned it. Instead the sequence was the flight was cancelled and later in the day a cluster of balloons was flown.

Second, we know what the cluster of balloons was. It was not a full array, but three or four balloons carrying a sonobouy which means that this balloon cluster was relatively short and did not pose a hazard to aerial navigation. It fact, according to a letter written by Moore, they didn’t expect it to get out of the restricted area around Alamogordo. There would be no aircraft flying into it.

Third, we know, based on Flight No. 5, that there had been no rawin radar targets on Flight No. 4 because there were no radar facilities to track it, and a diagram of that array was published in the New York University reports. There was no diagram for Flight No. 4 because there was no Flight No. 4.

Finally, we know that the nonsense about these flights being highly classified is wrong. The name, Mogul, was used by Crary in a number of entries in his diaries and field notes. The ultimate purpose was classified, but the experiments conducted in New Mexico were not. In fact, there were newspaper articles showing the balloons and reporting on the location of the launches published in early July.

It really is time to retire this explanation. It doesn’t fit the facts, it doesn’t explain anything, and it is just a red herring, thrown out to convince people that something mundane fell on the ranch. Say what you will, this is not a viable explanation.

96 comments:

Lance said...

Kevin,

This highly biased and misleading (you are well aware of launches that DID happen in darkness, aren't you?) post will play well for the regulars.

Every detail has been discussed to death and refuted. The skeptical explanation doesn't care if you pedantically call the Flight #4 or not. The exact classification of Mogul is unimportant.

Again, an audience of laypersons could easily see through this in a debate situation.

Lance

KRandle said...

Lance -

Knew you would be the first and knew that you'd reject everything because it doesn't fit with your world view. The rules and regulations prohibited nighttime launches until the balloon trains were reconfigured in July. It makes no sense to cancel a flight at it's projected time because of clouds but to have launched it earlier that morning... which, of course, the written record does not support (meaning the launch at three a.m.),

It was a cluster of balloons launched during the day, with a sonobuoy and nothing more. Your continued insistence to ignore the record from that very time tells us all we need to know.

Nothing has been refuted, Charles Moore lied about the times of the launch, fudged the numbers to create the situation he wanted, and made up details that were in conflict with others.

Whatever landed on the Brazel ranch, it was not a balloon, it was not part of Mogul, and your continued insistence on believing this nonsense is illustrative of your mind set.

cda said...

Kevin says to Lance:

"Whatever landed on the Brazel ranch, it was not a balloon, it was not part of Mogul, and your continued insistence on believing this nonsense is illustrative of your mind set."

My response:

Whatever landed on that ranch, it was NOT an ET craft, or any part thereof. No such thing was known to science then, and no such thing is now.

And after 67 years, we may be quite certain that no ET craft/bodies are, or ever were, stashed away in top secret vaults. For anyone who continues to promote this (and there are plenty who do), it is illustrative of their mind set.

Anthony Mugan said...

It is abundantly clear that the Mogul hypothesis is falsified. I have a minor concern about about the assertion that night launches were prohibited.
The relevant restrictions were for a completely clear sky and visibility of at least 3 miles.
Both the night 3rd/4th June and 2/3rd July ( for Flight 8 which launched at 03:03) had full moons (or very close to it for June). Flight 4 was cancelled due to clouds with a service flight later in the morning but 8 could fly.
Is there some other aspect I'm missing on that?

Larry said...

Anthony:

I don't have access to the relevant documents right now and am going on memory, but the correspondence between the NYU balloon project and the CAA shows that the balloons were cleared for flight on "cloudless days" or words to that effect.

In aviation parlance, a "day" is not a period of time beginning at midnight and ending at midnight 24 hours later, as it might be construed in common usage. It is the period of time, roughly, between sunrise and sunset. It is the period of time during which flight can be conducted under visual flight rules using natural ambient lighting.

Night operations of aircraft, balloons, etc. are approved separately from daytime operations. Some pilots, for example, are permitted to fly during the day but not at night.

Larry said...

From Aviation Glossary:

http://aviationglossary.com/night/

"Night: The aviation definition of the term Night has a significant Regulatory impact on aviation and worldwide aircraft operations . Many international regulations and standards apply specifically to aviation operations conducted at night or differentiate between operations permitted by day and those permitted at night. In certain circumstances both pilots and the operation of specific aircraft may be restricted to day only operations."

This definition reflects the current FAA regulations, which supplanted the CAA. Maybe the definition was different back then, but I doubt it.

Anthony Mugan said...

Thanks Larry...but I'm puzzled. How the do we get Flight 8 going up at 3am?
Conscious this is a detail rather than anything fundamental to the overall conclusion on Flight 4.

KRandle said...

Anthony -

By the time of that launch, the configuration of the arrays had changed. They were less than a third as long as they had been because of the use of polyethyline balloons and fewer bits of equipment. Then too, if they expected the balloon to remain over the restricted areas the launch requirements changed.

So the answer is the configuration of the balloon, the length of it, and their expected results.

Lance said...

Kevin ,

Where is the document that confirms the above?

Thanks,

Lance

David Halperin said...

Question for Kevin: is it possible to reject the Mogul explanation without asserting that Charles Moore acted in bad faith?
In the chapter he contributed to the 1997 book "UFO Crash at Roswell," Moore quoted Brazel as saying that "tape with flowers printed on it" had been found among the debris. He claimed to remember that the tape used for the Mogul construction had "abstract, pinkish purple, flowerlike figures printed on the back," and that this is the "proverbial smoking gun" linking Mogul to Roswell. If Moore's statement is truthful, I would agree.
So, do you have any recourse other than to say that Moore was lying? And if he lied, how do you understand his motives?

Lance said...

Calling Moore a liar is not Kevin's style. I am afraid that too much of another rabid Roswell believer has rubbed off on him. That person calls folks liars at the drop of a hat (see two threads below here -this is done to Robert Sheaffer, hilariously due to a misunderstanding by the overzealous believer).

Moore was no enemy of UFO's. He has been called the first scientist to report a UFO (this is inaccurate but it was the way he was presented in the famous EC UFO Weird Science/Fantasy issue in 1954--mostly written by Keyhoe). When I talked to him in the mid-1990's, he still stood by that sighting as anomalous.

Because every existing document is disconfirming for the Rowell myth, the Roswell faithful have to work very hard to constantly create and recreate rationalizations for this problem.

The flowered tape was reported in several contemporaneous news stories. The tape does not seem to appear in any of the Ft. Worth Roswell photos. I wonder if it may have been stripped off prior to the taking of the photos because it looked silly?

I think now (although it is hard to follow the exact scenario being created by the myth makers) that the idea postulated to explain away the flowered tape is that there were several sets of "false" debris used to coach and coerce the witnesses into saying the "right" thing.

The funniest thing about Roswell to me is that, since EVERY SINGLE witness to a crashed ship and bodies, etc has proven too dubious even for the Roswell faithful, the story is left with only the debris that was found on the Foster ranch. And there is simply no way to get around the fact that all of this stuff basically looked like balsa wood sticks and foil paper!

Best,

Lance

cda said...

David Halperin:

Both Kevin and David Rudiak claim that Moore lied over part or all of his testimony. This is necessary for them to dismiss the Mogul explanation. The only way out is to say Moore's memory was faulty on certain aspects of the event.

However, the skeptics claim that many, if not most, of the witnesses, whether first-hand, second-hand or third-hand, are also either liars or are guilty of faulty memory, or have been 'got at' by biased interviewers.

Hence we have this eternal stalemate. Nobody can really trust anyone's testimony after such a long lapse of time. And several witnesses have been demonstrable liars.

DR even accuses the USAF investigators of the 1990s of lying. Perhaps Kevin does also, I am not sure.

Also, there is virtually nothing in writing, in the way of official documentation, from the time of the event, although there are a few photos (hotly disputed!). The press reports are also disputed in places. So everything relies on human memory alone.

The only real question, in my view, is this: Are you prepared to believe that such an vitally important scientific discovery (an ET craft and bodies) could, or would, be covered up for nearly 7 decades in some official secret vaults, unknown to anyone except the 'select few'?

If you DO indeed accept the above, that is your choice.

The scientific fraternity does NOT accept such a scenario, and never will. Neither do I.

To me this is far more important than anything Charles Moore said or did.

KRandle said...

Lance -

Take a look at the New York University reports on the constant level balloons. Look at the description of the flights. No. 8 was made up of ten 7 foot polyethylene ballons and described in Crary's notes as a cluster rather than an array. They were launched in conjunction with a V-2, but the V-2 was shrubbed. Given this, the various notifications had been issued and the restrictions of flight over that area were reinforced. The balloon was found near Tularosa and that means it could have been found inside the restricted area. There is also a description of the Flight No. 10 array which is relevant here.

David Halperin -

We certainly can make the case, but Moore did act in bad faith by asserting that Flight No. 4 was launched at 3:00 a.m. although he originally made his calculations based on a launch at dawn. He knew what it meant that a cluster of balloons was flown and he knew that it wasn't Flight No. 4. I suspect he also knew that there would have been no rawin radar targets on it, just as there were none on Flight No. 5. The configurations of the various flights is documented in the NYU reports on the constant level balloon. (And I note that there is no such description of Flight No. 4).

Although the description of the tape is not a direct quote from Mack Brazel (yes, that's a guibble), no one has provided an example of this tape and it is only Moore's memory of the "novelty" tape that was used to reinforce the structure that links the two.

I could point out that Moore said that if there was a gouge in the terrain, then the balloons were not the cause.

The Mogul explanation hinges on the fact that an array was launched on June 4 (because all others are accounted for in the record) and that it headed in the direction of the Brazel ranch. If Flight No. 4 was cancelled, then the Mogul explanation fails (and that means that it too is accounted for in the record).

If the cluster of balloons flown on June 4 (which was not a Mogul array) contained only a sonobuoy, as the written record shows, then there were no rawin radar targets and no purple reinforcing tape to be found.

As for Moore's motivations, I don't know why he would continually alter his story, but the evidence shows that he did, changing times and descriptions to fit his purpose.

Lance said...

Kevin,

So the assertion you are making about night launches is simply your speculation about how you believe that things worked without actual clear documentation?

I'm sure that will work well for the regulars--it is, after all, how the whole myth is built.

Lance

Anthony Mugan said...

Just to be clear:
The NYU progress report makes it perfectly clear that there was no constant level cluster released as Flight 4. Crary's diary plus weather records confirms the reason why.
Even with ignoring all that the only way the alleged Flight 4 trajectory can be made to reach the approximate area of the Foster ranch is by breaking the laws of physics.
Mogul falls apart at every step of the analysis. I can not understand how anyone can pretend otherwise... Do the maths yourself if you doubt that.

As CDA notes, recognising the failure of the Mogul hypothesis does not of itself confirm the ETH.

The discussion on regulations on night launches is an interesting detail, but is hardly an issue in the overall conclusion.

KRandle said...

Lance -

For crying out loud, I have already cited the relevant portions of the NYU studies that include the CAA regulations under which they operated.

KRandle said...

All -

This is getting silly. Why? Because Flight No. 4 was cancelled. The records from that time prove it. It didn't fly at 3:oo a.m. because it was cancelled. It didn't fly at dawn, because it was cancelled. It didn't fly at all.

What did fly was a cluster of balloons and a sonobuoy. Three or four balloons and a microphone. There were no rawin targets on it. There wasn't a long array behind it. Just a small cluster of balloons that lifted a microphone.

It doesn't matter if Flight No. 4 was wrapped in the "novelty" tape, because it didn't fly. In fact, the best evidence is that even if Flight No. 4 had flown, there would have been no rawin targets on it.

Moore knew this. He tried to turn the cluster into the array, but Crary's diary tells us the truth about that.

The first recorded flight in New Mexico was Flight No. 5. That's it.

So, when we drop into the weeds, we lose sight of the fact that there was no Flight No. 4. If there was one, please present the evidence. If not, let's now move on to something more constructive.

Oh, and CDA, if Mogul is eliminated, that doesn't mean that what fell was alien. It just means it wasn't Mogul.

Nitram Ang said...

Lance posted:

"This highly biased and misleading (you are well aware of launches that DID happen in darkness, aren't you?) post will play well for the regulars."

AND...

"Again, an audience of laypersons could easily see through this in a debate situation."

Lance, please explain in a lot more detail why this latest post is "misleading"?

How many times do you need reminding, this is a discussion not a debate?

You also stated:

"Calling Moore a liar is not Kevin's style. I am afraid that too much of another rabid Roswell believer has rubbed off on him. That person calls folks liars at the drop of a hat..."

Ok - maybe that "rabid Roswell believer" as you put it, could change the wording from lying to "made a false statement".

Once again, and Kevin has beaten me too it, if the Mogul explanation goes down - it doesn't prove anything. As Jesse Marcel Jr stated.... I don't know what the stuff was, but I do know what it wasn't....

I appreciate you have been polite in your earlier posts and maybe have been subjected to a bit much sarcasm but also bear in mind that there is some frustration from the "experts" who have carefully researched all of this over many many years and who know a lot more about it that you - a mere "Roswell novice" in comparison.

It would help though if you try and answer the questions directly, rather than going off topic like you sidekick - the "rapid Roswell debunker".

So today's question for you...

Do you really think that Marcel Senior didn't know that the stuff he was holding in his hands (yeah, the Mogul stuff in Ramey's Office) was just balloon material?

Capt Steve said...

I believe that Kevin has adequately documented the reasons why Mogul is not the explanation for the debris found on the Brazel ranch in 1947. I'm not quite sure I understand the nearly automated naysaying that takes place.

Ruling out Mogul does not automatically mean that the stories of the crashed vehicle and crew are true, of course, or that the recovered debris that was documented as being recovered is extraterrestrial in nature.

Larry said...

Capt. Steve wrote:

“Ruling out Mogul does not automatically mean that the stories of the crashed vehicle and crew are true, of course, or that the recovered debris that was documented as being recovered is extraterrestrial in nature. …”

Quite right. But what it does mean is that the Air Force uncritically grabbed the Mogul BS and propagated it via their 1995 “The Roswell Report….”, thus making it the latest in a line of official but false statements. And that, I think, is the answer to why some still believe the Mogul story; Moore was never required to subject his story to critical review by qualified professional peers. If someone attempted to publish such BS in the professional literature, it would never make it through the peer review process.

cda said...

"Oh, and CDA, if Mogul is eliminated, that doesn't mean that what fell was alien. It just means it wasn't Mogul."

Quite right Kevin. But you and your gang have been insisting for the last 20 to 25 years that the said debris WAS alien, haven't you?

Tell us please: are you now beginning to have just a twinge of doubt, or maybe even serious doubts, about this conclusion?

If so, please say so.

Anthony Mugan said...

CDA
One step at a time might be a relevant maxim regarding the actual nature of the material recovered.
To establish that decisively we would need to get into a forensic, quantified analysis of the Ramey memo along the lie DR mentioned a while ago, using OCR technology. That's well beyond the scope of this post but the reason this case is so interesting and significant is that it does offer the prospect of a definitive result.

cda said...

Anthony:

Please, I beg you, stop kidding yourself over what that Ramey memo might contain. Yes it is well beyond the scope of this post. This is because that scrap of paper was consigned to the trash can, probably on the day it was written.

There will be no "forensic, quantified analysis" of it, either.

KRandle said...

CDA -

Nope, just making a logical statement. Showing Mogul was not responsible does not take us to the extraterrestrial.

Don said...

Capt Steve: "I'm not quite sure I understand the nearly automated naysaying that takes place."

Because if it wasn't Mogul then it is an unknown. What could it have been, then? If it wasn't Mogul, and if there were no weather balloons with rawins attached that could account for it, then all they have left is the Wizard Of Oz hypothesis, that it was blown onto the ranch by some strange wind from someplace that launched weather balloons with radar reflectors attached -- and David's 'drooling idiots" are back in play.

Like the rest of us, the skeptics are left with balloon-like, balsa-like, foil-like descriptions to make of what they will.

What is interesting to me, is that the AAF worked hard to put a disk of some sort on the ranch. Why, I don't know. In any event, a rawin is hardly a disk. Actually, a weather balloon is disk-like appearing when in the sky, but Ramey insisted no one saw it in the air (and Brazel we are told didn't see it fall from the sky).

Early on Ramey offered that a 25 foot disk made of sticks and foil had "landed", but that was as likely as an ET saucer.

The only actors in this drama who said there was a flying disk were Blanchard and Ramey.

I disagree with Kevin that the lack of quotations from Brazel is a "quibble" (but agree on the rest). I think it is significant.

Regards,

Don

albertguitar.com said...

@cda

"...The scientific fraternity does NOT accept such a scenario, and never will. Neither do I...."

The 'scientific fraternity*' is notorious for not examining controversial phenomena, and the more vocal (rabid might be more accurate) actually go out of their way to debunk them. Just look at some of their absurd 'explanations' for certain UFO cases.

'Scientists' find it impossible to examine things that they can't explain, or to simply say: "I don't know.", as if the world expects them to know everything.

'Scientists' always want 'scientific' evidence, not realizing that it's THEIR JOB to get such evidence.

'Science' behaves much like any other institutionalized bureaucracy. Their skepti-bunkers sound just like those political pundits on TV, except that those pols know they're pedalling BS.

So forget waiting for 'science' to solve the riddle, it's not likely to happen soon.


*fraternity - indeed :)

Gilles Fernandez said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
David Rudiak said...

Gilles:

Flight #8 was the first large, compact, polyethylene balloon flight, NOT at all the same as the earlier rubber meteorological balloon trains up to 600 feet in length. These were considered more hazardous to aviation because of their great length. Planes would be more likely to run into and tangle up with these.

You still haven't produced a single document that a real, large, fully rigged constant-altitude flight went up June 4, which necessarily would have been tracked and the data recorded permanently in Mogul flight records. Both the Air Force and Charles Moore insisted it had to be an actual Mogul flight, not a small service flight (which were not part of permanent records), to make their various scenarios work.

Mogul "Flight #4" was clearly cancelled, per Crary's diary, just as prior Flights #2 and #3 were indicated as cancelled because of various problems (mainly high winds), reusable gear stripped off, and the non-reusable rubber balloons released. They too make up blanks in the Mogul flight records, just like the equally nonexistent Flight #4, also cancelled because of cloud cover.

Despite Mogul summaries clearly indicating that #2 and #3 were cancelled, the Air Force and Moore also resurrected these as real flights as well, probably to give credence to a #4. I call this flagrant lying. Apparently the mere intention to fly these, whether they flew or not, was sufficient to turn them into "real" flights.

Besides Mogul flight summaries, and whether you like it or not, subsequent official flight histories by Watson Labs, that controlled Mogul, NASA, and the Air Force ALL list Flight #5 June 5 as the FIRST N.M. Mogul flight, not a word about your fictional Flight #4 being the first one.

Gilles Fernandez said...

Kevin wrote : they were not allowed to fly them at night or into clouds.
Hello,

Hehe, Dear Kevin! How do you will explain the launch time of NYU flight #8 (0303 MST),in regard your ufologist's rethoric that NYU clusters cant be launched in dark time????
Simply curious about what an UFO-proponents, like you, will react in order to defend ad hoc, his previous claim.

Regards,

Gilles

Gilles Fernandez said...

David wrote: not a word about your fictional Flight #4 being the first one.

I think you have NOTHING understood about what UFO-skeptics think about this june launch. That's not new, but "hallucinating me"...

Anyway, I wait Kevin Randle explaining us, flight #8 launch time, despite his previous claim...

I guess another UFO rhetoric exercice by him ^^

Regards,

Gilles

Gilles Fernandez said...

Kevin is imho confusing what NYU was restricted in East coast, and not when reaching West Coast.
In West coast, june and july, they have no one restrictions, cause in Alamogordo.
After, they will react due to the fact their balloons are going more the alamogordo space range.

Anyway, Kevin will explain us why flight #8 was launched in night times ;)

Lance said...

Gilles,

I think the new concoction is that the Roswell believers have decided that the composition of the flights were different they have now decided to say that this allowed night flights (somehow).

Connecting the composition of the flights to the night rules is, of course, entirely a supposition.

And in this neighborhood suppositions=facts, baby!

Lance

KRandle said...

Gilles -

I really do not wish to go over this again. All this is irrelevant simply because there was no Flight No. 4 and if that is the case, then Mogul did not drop debris on the Brazel ranch.

However...

Flight No. 8 was launched in conjunction with a V-2 launch. According to Crary, "On Thursday morning 3 July, a cluster of GM plastic balloons sent up for V2 recording but V2 was not fired. No shots fired. Balloons up for some time. No recordings from Roswell as pibal showed no W winds. Balloons picked up by radar WL and hunted by Manjak C-45. Located on Tularosa Range by air."

Got that... a cluster of balloons.

The NYU report said, "First non-extensible balloon flight. Due to lack of information on volume the attitude control was not actuated. However, flight shows excellent stability of non-extensible balloons. Less lift due balloon leakage 1000 gm/hr."

There is no diagram of this flight as there are with the other arrays, but given the data available, it is clear that this was a cluster of General Mills balloons and the purpose was to monitor a V-2 launch, not to mention that this was in July when the some of the arrays had been reduced in size.

But again, it is irrelevant, because there was no Flight No. 4. It was cancelled. Until you can find some documentation to suggest otherwise, we are have reached a stalemate.

Gilles Fernandez said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
cda said...

Gilles:

The photos at Ft Worth show what was picked up at the ranch. The account given in the Ft Worth and Dallas press and the description given by Brazel in the Roswell press show likewise.

But no, the conspiracists tell us, these descriptions and photos were all faked, and substitute debris was put in their place.

My dear Gilles, you simply cannot, or will not, understand that all this 30-year to 50-year post-event testimony by numerous 2nd-hand or 3rd-hand witnesses is far, far more accurate and satisfactory than the contemporary accounts.

And the USAF are monumental liars.

And the US authorities have concealed the greatest scientific discovery ever made for nearly 70 years, all in top secret cabinets.

And the tons of secret documentation is likewise all hushed up, so dimwits like you and me can never read it. We would never understand it anyway, would we?

But that scrap of paper known as the 'Ramey memo' contains the vital clues. It is there in black and white if only we could see it and decipher it! Alas we can't.

Mogul, 'clusters', night flights? Forget all of them - it is a giant red herring put there by the USAF liars and conspirators.

So be it.

Gilles Fernandez said...

PS: Hoo I forgot.

You as other neglect/minorate imho a "major" point against your thesis of a "mini-cluster of balloons" embarking "only" a Mike sonobuoy and for that flight of June the 4th. And it is the follwing point:

The assembly was followed by a plane like for previous or future "complex" assemblies...
Crary wrote: had good luck on receiver on ground but poor on plane

Do you imagine a B-17 following a mini-cluster of balloons, seriously Kevin? It have few sens imho...

Regards,

Gilles

Gilles Fernandez said...

Kevin wrote : Got that... a cluster of balloons

Hello Kevin,

(Sorry, I deleted my previous message cause I confused two numbers of flights - after a coffea, it is better^^ -).

We have already 100 times discussed the term and use of "cluster".

For you (as Gildas Bourdais), "cluster" seems to mean a little and "stupid" group of balloons, presenting any problem for plane traffic but that's not factual imho again.

For example, the drawing of flight #2 in the NYU documentation is titled "Train for cluster flight 2" and we count more than twenty balloons + several things, then a "big" assembly.

"Cluster" as occurence in Crary's diary appears several times too.

For example for flight #7 and flight #8 (as for #9 if I well remember), Crary used the term "cluster" despite they were MUCH MORE than a stupid "cluster of balloons" as some serve ad nauseam here and there...
So "Got that too" (humour).

In essence and imho, when Crary writes "cluster" it doesnt mean necessary a "stupid" apparatus of balloons as you and others are presenting. I regret again.

And I regret for a last time, but an apparatus of balloons was launched that 4 june (You IGNORE its configuration), as another May the 29th, but we have already debated those points.

==> There are no real problems or counter-arguments they have not corner-reflectors attached in (like in the drawing of flight #2 in the NYU documentation) despite all walls of text we will propose "you" as "me" (100 times discussed), as they remain good candidats for Brazel debris.

Regards,

Gilles.

Anthony Mugan said...

Gilles
The launch restrictions were actually tighter in New Mexico than on the east coast. They had to apply for separate permission for the N.M launches and the consternation if the project team is evident in the correspondence on the subject at finding the cloud restriction tightened fro clear to 20000 feet to completely clear.
I am not yet entirely clear on what the regulations may or may not have been regarding the size of the assembly and time of launch etc. but really this us just a matter of academic interest.
The NYU progress reports state quite clearly that all constant level flights were listed, but not service flights or Mogul flights. Actual Mogul flights came later and service flights are clearly defined as tests of specific pieces of equipment.
Constant Level flight 4 was cancelled for reasons that are clearly established. The lack of a record in the progress report indicates that the sonobuoy launched later was exactly as it seems from Crary's diary... A service flight.

Even if the weather had been different and Flight 4 had gone up it can't be made to get to the right location without breaking the laws of physics on the trajectory, so the scenario is hopeless from all angles.

This still leaves us with simply unidentified debris.

Don said...

Did you know that in the summer of 1947 you could buy army surplus weather balloons at Walgreen's, two for 25 cents? That's eight for a dollar. For five dollars you could have 40 weather ballons. Now all you need is some sticks and foil and helium.

That's my Roswell Hoax Theory. I'll leave the Alien Balloon Theory for another comment.

(I've always wanted to contribute to a Mogul discussion, and finally found a way, and thank you for you for reading it).

Regards,

Don

KRandle said...

All -

Apropos of nothing, and something that I haven't seen mentioned, I was looking at the table of NYU balloon launches and noticed that the June 5 launch was made at 1517 hours, or about a quarter after three in the afternoon. That didn't seem right to me, so I looked at some other documents.

In the report prepared by Charles Moore, he had written in 5:17 with a couple of question marks, which means he didn't accept that afternoon launch either.

So, I went back to Crary's diary, which said, "Whole assembly went up at 5:00."

So, there are errors in this record, which can be corrected based on other documentation.

For the famous Flight No. 8, which is now all the rage, it said, as noted before, "On Thursday morning July, a cluster of GM balloons sent up for V2 recording but V2 was not fired."

The record showed this was launched at 0303... but I wonder, could this be another typo and is there any evidence for this?

It has been my impression that this V2 launch was later in the day, about 6:30 p.m. and it never left the pad. Thinking about this, it could also mean it was 6:30 a.m. and the reason I say this is that I can't lay my hands on the relevant newspaper records. I know the Chicago Tribune of July 4 carried the story, which would resolve this time issue that I have now created...

I would suggest that if the launch was late in the afternoon, then the time for Flight No. 8 might actually have been 3:03 p.m. And, if the launch was scheduled for 6:30 a.m., then the launch could well have been at 3:03 in the morning.

The launch logs from White Sands that I do have don't have a launch time, merely the date. The newspaper articles might be able to resolve this, meaning the time of the missile launch. It would seem that if it was a late afternoon launch, then the balloons would not have been sent up some sixteen hours earlier.

Don said...

Kevin, I know nothing at all about Mogul flights, considering it to be bs, so I don't know whether this is about flight #8, but...

"White Sands N.M., July3 (1947). AP

Two men were burned seriously by acid and six others suffered minor burns early tonight as they prepared for the launching of a German V-2 at the White Sands proving grounds, the army announced."

Source Albuquerque Journal (a morning paper), 7/4/47

Don said...

According to the Las Cruces Sun News, July 6, the July 3 V-2 launch was intended to launch that morning, but technical difficulties prevented it. The acid tank accident occurred while preparing for a second attempt in the early evening.

Without a background re: Mogul, I am not sure what this debate is all about or what #8 has to do with Roswell. The way I read the two news stories is there were two attempts made to launch a V-2 from White Sands. One, in the "early morning" and then a second attempt "early tonight". Both were scrubbed.

If this is about a bunch of balloons associated with this V-2 rocket, and if it is flight #8's rocket, I'll leave it to the experts to explain when and how (and how many, how many times, and in what configurations) the balloons were sent aloft, if they were sent aloft.

Regards,

Don

David Rudiak said...

Don,

Flight #8 was a documented Mogul flight sent up early in the morning in coordination with the planned V-2 flight, which I believe was supposed to carry explosives to test Mogul sensors. But the V-2 flight was delayed because of technical problems. So they quickly assembled a planned Flight #9 to be sent up later that day (according to Charles Moore and Pflock, one of the long trains of neoprene weather balloons, unlike #8, which was the first plastic balloon flight).

Then there was the accident of the V-2 where men were injured, the V-2 flight was cancelled, and so was the planned #9. Moore stated here they would normally strip off all reusable gear and cut loose the non-resuable weather balloons.

So if you look for a Flight #9, i is ALSO missing from Mogul records, along with the equally cancelled Flights #2, #3, and #4, which the A.F. and Moore for their Roswell debunkery brought back to life.

Don said...

David, the reason why the USAF came up with the Mogul explanation was to account for a rawin landing on the Foster Ranch? It was either that or the Wizard Of Oz, since the Weather Bureau did not use them. That's why Ramey was so certain it was an army device.

Mogul itself doesn't matter. What would matter is if whatever was launched (array, train, or just plain old bunches of balloons) had a rawin attached (and then getting it to the ranch).

The AAF worked overtime to convince people both rawins and weather balloons could be mistaken for a "disk" when aloft. Ok. But they also made the point that no one had seen the Brazel object aloft to have mistaken it for anything.

Best Regards,

Don

David Rudiak said...

Don,

The civilian weather bureau did use rawins. Depended on availability of radar. The Roswell weatherman the day after said he knew about them and many had been distributed to civilian W.B. post war. That was also the official military line, that they were just becoming common and that is why people were just starting to see flying saucers (because F.S. WERE rawin weather balloons).

For period quotes about rawin use, see:

http://www.roswellproof.com/balloon_use.html

Don said...

David, quoting the AP Fort Worth story (from the Daytona Beach Morning Journal, 7/9/47), following General Yate's comments:

"The Weather Bureau said it uses none of the radar target balloons at land stations. Some are used from Coast Guard vessels in the Atlantic, Bureau officials said, but he normally blow eastward toward Europe.

Between the Army and the Weather Bureau, hundeds of weather balloons without the metallic target are released daily from points all over the country."

This does seem to read that as of July 9, 1947, the Weather Bureau did not use rawins at "land stations".

Best Regards,

Don

KRandle said...

Don -

Well, isn't this a fine mess? From the Boston Herald on July 9, the same General Yates said,"only a very few of them are used daily, at points where some specific project requires highly accurate wind information..."

From the Des Moine Register of July 6, there is a picture of a rawin target held by Mrs. Sherman Campbell (but who, in reality, is Campbell's daughter). She's holding it up so that we see, quite clearly, that it is a rawin. It was found in Ohio... and identified as part of a balloon by the farmer who found it, the sheiff who saw it, and the reporter who covered the story.

Irving Newton did say they didn't use rawins in Fort Worth... and it is clear that the did at Fort Sill, Oklahoma, where the Army artillery school was.

So, we have battling generals... oh, wait, it's the same guy with different quotes.

Don said...

Kevin, my apologies. What I had written has been misleading. I didn't mean the quotation was from General Yates. I mentioned him because I had found the part I quoted in those versions of the AP Ft Worth story that included Gen. Yates' comments.

Not all newspapers carried all the story, depending on space available and editorial policy. It was just a note for David to look at the versions containing 'Yates'. The quotation followed immediately after Yates' comments.

I am attempting to determine where a rawin might have come from, if one was found by Brazel. It can't be from Mogul #4. I don't know for a fact, but I assume #4's rig was simply held overnight, and launched as #5 -- which could not have been what Brazel found.

So, the only possibility, if there were no Weather Bureau rawin launches and if we set aside an unlikely Wizard of Oz tornado, is a standard weather balloon and rawin from Alamogordo -- which everyone, including Brazel's dogs, would recognize as foil, sticks and rubber. Nothing odd about it, and no need, as some skeptics have it, for Marcel and Blanchard to wonder about all the rigging, and being uncertain, punting the matter to Ramey.

Thus, Ft Worth was a charade.

The page David linked to is a good account of the weather balloon situation back then, but there is little to support Weather Bureau use of rawins besides Blakeslee (I don't know what his source was) and their use in San Francisco and Seattle -- coastal cities. So, they may have been used on the west coast as well as the east coast.

Obviously, the balloons were war surplus and easily available, not only to the Weather Bureau, but to the public. You could buy them two for a quarter at Walgreens (and 19 cents apiece in other stores). It is also obvious that some of those quoted really were not clear about the difference between rawins and radiosondes.


Regards,

Don

cda said...

It seems to me that we have 3 contemporary pieces of evidence that, Mogul or not, a balloon plus rawin device WAS retrieved at the ranch:

1. The description of how Marcel & Brazel tried to form it into a kite (but failed in the end). Now why would they try to do this if they didn't suspect that parts of the debris came from a kite-like object?

2. The description of the material given in both the RDR and the FT Worth newspapers (two separate interviews at different locations).

3. The Ft Worth photos.

Despite all this, some people go to the most amazing lengths to prove there was a gigantic cover-up of the object's true identity, a cover-up which lasts to this day. (The witnesses were all told what to say, the photos were faked, death threats were made, etc.)

What is the reason, after 67 years, for this cover-up to still go on, please? And let's have an answer that makes sense.

And another reminder: no such thing as an ET craft was known to science in 1947, nor is it now. And the idea that the USAF, or any other agency, has got ET debris stashed away in secret vaults is laughable.

I do wonder if whether the stuff came from a weather balloon launch or whether it came from a Mogul test flight really matters.

The USAF 1994 (47 years after the event!) enquiry & report only came about because of public pressure and a request from a NM congressman. Perhaps the AF would have done better to have said and done nothing at all.

Don said...

CDA, I don't think the anecdotal descriptions in your three items match one balloon and kite, or many balloons and many kites, or even match up with each other. Unfortunately, the AAF did not provide a report on the incident to the press, so we do not know any details or have any photographs of the 'debris field', nor any explanation of the press release. Instead, the "army and the navy began a concentrated campaign to stop the rumors" (UP, 7/9/47). This began with Roswell.
There is nothing in the news stories to suggest the officers at the RAAF couldn't identify the object. They simply refused to reveal any details "about its appearance or construction". The same for George Wilcox who, after naming the ranch and rancher, shut up.

That was the cover-up, not the weather balloon and radar target, and not even Mogul, which might have been what Ramey expected had been found. It might be worth the skeptics' time to look into whether or not Ramey expected Mogul, because if he did, then that would be evidence for there having been a Flight #4.

Regards,

Don

Lance said...

Don,

Why isn't slight embarrassment enough reason to not wish to continue talking about the sticks and foil found at the Foster ranch?

Lance

cda said...

Don:

Yes, you are right, we have no contemporary report or photos of the debris field. This leads to two alternative conclusions:

1. The said report and photos are still stashed away, along with the debris & bodies, in top secret vaults.

2. The report does not (and never did) exist. No photos were taken because the event had no significance.

I leave you to decide which is correct. I would go for 2, but I know plenty of others, including those in the Dream Team, who go for 1.

Which do you prefer?

Don said...

Lance: "Why isn't slight embarrassment enough reason to not wish to continue talking about the sticks and foil found at the Foster ranch?"

Is this the same sort of embarrassment that would have led Ft Worth to strip off the flowered tape?

Since the purpose was to reveal that the past weeks' saucer sightings were of weather balloons and radar targets, wouldn't they rather have documented the matter in detail for the public?

I don't see anything for Ramey to have been embarrassed about at the time.

The press was disappointed. They'd hoped for a better story.


Regards,

Don

Don said...

CDA: "Which do you prefer?"

I already know the eternal Roswell debate has no "None Of The Above" option. Just ET Advocate/ET Skeptic.

I don't pay any attention to it.

Regards,

Don

Lance said...

"Is this the same sort of embarrassment that would have led Ft Worth to strip off the flowered tape?"

Don, I don't know if this is sarcasm or not.

I did suggest that before taking the photos, I could see a scenario where the flowered tape was removed because it might have been seen as silly looking. I don't suggest that this is the only possible scenario but I find it possible.

"Since the purpose was to reveal that the past weeks' saucer sightings were of weather balloons and radar targets, wouldn't they rather have documented the matter in detail for the public? "

They did. With photos and in interviews.

"I don't see anything for Ramey to have been embarrassed about at the time."

The Army first said it was a flying disk. It wasn't. He has to retract the earlier statement. You really can't see anything to be embarrassed about there?

Lance







Don said...

Lance, I don't recall Ramey retracting anything in 1947. In fact, in the Roswell Report, the press release is referred to as part of the "previously reported information", and no more. The "incident" was instantiated by a newspaper headline.

Nobody ever asked the army to explain the press release, not in 1947 and not Schiff, either, in the 1990s.

Nobody asks. Nobody tells.

Regards,

Don

Nitram Ang said...

Lance said:

"Why isn't slight embarrassment enough reason to not wish to continue talking about the sticks and foil found at the Foster ranch?"

Lance, aren't you embarrassed at asking such silly questions and ducking the hard ones?

Even you as a novice know that the argument of course, from the experts, is that was NOT, the material that was recovered at the ranch and that it was switched.

Lance, try and treat this like as investigation for once, not as a debate...

Look at Marcel, in the photographs, smiling....
Does he look like a man who doesn't know what foil looks like?

I suggest you forget about what the "dream teams" proposed solution to the incident is. Just focus on Mogul for a moment and gradually you will realise there a lot of problems with it...

You need to answer the questions in a "debate" Lance - let's see if you can?

Nitram Ang said...

CDA wrote:

"The description of how Marcel & Brazel tried to form it into a kite (but failed in the end). Now why would they try to do this if they didn't suspect that parts of the debris came from a kite-like object?"

Yes, CDA - in my humble opinion you might have a point here - although we can't ask Marcel & Brazel why obviously.


KR/DR is there an answer? I have read this somewhere also (about them trying to form it into a kite) but maybe you can both enlighten us a bit more please.

It may not be a "material question" but can you provide some sort of answer for us?
Thank you.

Lance said...

Don,

It may well be my own limitations but I see your answer as simply playing with words. I know you believe you are delivering some pristine truth but the subtlety makes that truth particularly opaque (and I suspect ultimately insubstantial).

To regular folks, the Ramey interaction with the press served to refute the earlier claim of the Army having a disk. I know you wish to make it oh so much more (or less) (or something). But I am more than happy to have my mind changed with clear supported arguments.

Nitram, I answered one of your little questions before to no end and your latest facile concoction is not worth the time you took to write it. Let me ask you one: To whom do I have the pleasure of speaking?

Lance

Don said...

Lance: "It may well be my own limitations but I see your answer as simply playing with words."

Why? To prove me wrong just quote Ramey's retraction.

ps: Should I forget you have argued the first sentence of Haughts Statement was probably written by a news reporter, and that in the summer of 47 there was no accepted definition of 'flying disk', or are they still good with you?

Regards,

Don

Lance said...

"Gen Ramey Empties Roswell Saucer"
"Ramey Says Excitement is Not Justified"
"Ramey went on the air here last night to announce the New Mexico discovery was not a flying disk."

It appears that the press of the time also missed your elusive (and thus far to me, illusory) point.

Again, I have no idea what you are attempting to argue. You seem to be parsing words as though the limited accounts we have of Roswell comprise the whole of the event.

Just state your point man! Or, here is a challenge, ask someone else here if they can state it.

As to your P.S., those things all still seem like reasonable conclusions.

Lance

Don said...

Lance, I put up for years with your bs about the inscrutableness of my comments, and your weaseling aligning yourself with some supposed "regular people". So, either stop it, or go away admitting you are punching above your weight.

Posting frickin' newspaper headlines is not a useful reply to my request you quote Ramey retracting the presss release.

No one doubts Ramey said it was a weather balloon and radar target.

Write this out and post it on your bathroom mirror: Don says Ramey did not retract the press release. Don says the army never acknowledged there was an army press release, never 'took ownership of it' and therefore had no reason to "retract" it.

Ramey said he was countering the "wild stories" in the press, not making Haut do the perp walk for babbling about saucers.

Don't be such an ass.

Regards,

Don

Lance said...

Like most conspiracy buffs, you define some nutty stipulations about how human behavior should have worked and then proclaim some sort of revelation when those made up requirements aren't met.

Pure frippery.

Can you provide a transcript of exactly what was said at the Ramey press conference? Or in interviews that day?

Just because the press didn't report things exactly as you suggest they should (not knowing what pedantic requirements you might create in your mind) does not mean that that those things weren't said.

The gist of the press conference is clear to regular folks.

Lance

Nitram Ang said...

Lance

My name is not important and we have never met - sorry to duck the question, but it's immaterial - just call me Nitram please.
I don't wish to talk about myself, I enjoy the discussion on both sides and would like to one day have the truth established - 100% agreement if you like.

What is noticeable again, and has been pointed out before, is your problem in answering the "little questions".

If you can't answer the little questions, not a lot of point in giving you a big question then.

You continually state that the solution to Roswell is clear to ordinary folks - it still seems to be about as clear as a foggy Roswell night during an eclipse.

Lance said...

Nitram,

I meant regular smart folks.

Lance

Don said...

Lance: Just because the press didn't report things exactly as you suggest they should (not knowing what pedantic requirements you might create in your mind) does not mean that that those things weren't said."

St Paul defined Faith as "the evidence of things unseen." Yours above is a worthy example.

"The gist of the press conference is clear to regular folks."

Rather than absorbing the "gist" of the story as it sifts down to you through the ethereal dimensions, why not just read the damn things, instead?

That's what I do.

Regards,

Don

Lance said...

Don,

I have.

The Ramey press conference (as we have it filtered through brief news stories) does seem to clearly refer implicitly to the earlier press frenzy over the Roswell press release.

It is you who rely upon what was not said (some specific magical combination of words that you have made up in your head).

As far as I know, all we have is some few mostly paraphrased quotes from Ramey. Is there an actual transcript of anything (a radio address is mentioned) of what he actually said.

Without such, all we have are a few fragments, all of which (it seems to lowly me and to the headline writers of the time) implicitly refer to the Roswell Press release and the news frenzy that resulted from it.

Lance

Nitram Ang said...

Lance

Let's be sensible. You know that most (if not all) of the people on "KR's" team are smart.

Doesn't mean they have it right... but they are intelligent.

You lose credibility with these sort of statements.

Focus on the bigger picture... it's about getting a result, not scoring a point or two.

So... what about Marcel... I keep asking - he didn't really know what the stuff he was holding was until he was informed at the press conference?

Again, I think you need to be a bit more realistic about the whole Mogul thing...

Don said...

Lance: "The Ramey press conference (as we have it filtered through brief news stories) does seem to clearly refer implicitly to the earlier press frenzy over the Roswell press release."

Yes, with a note that "press conference" and "press release" are post-1978 terms (I think).

"It is you who rely upon what was not said (some specific magical combination of words that you have made up in your head)."

What was said is what you believe was said but not reported, or what was meant by what was said, even if it was not actually said.

I am incapable of such subtlety. I can only tell you what was written. I'm not a mindreader or channeler of dead Generals and reporters.

"As far as I know, all we have is some few mostly paraphrased quotes from Ramey. Is there an actual transcript of anything (a radio address is mentioned) of what he actually said."

Almost all of the Ramey quotations appear to have come from the local radio show. Odd for newspapers to be reduced to quoting radio news. Embarrassing, actually. You would not guess Ramey was in his office if it weren't for the photo.

"Without such, all we have are a few fragments, all of which (it seems to lowly me and to the headline writers of the time) implicitly refer to the Roswell Press release and the news frenzy that resulted from it."

My point has been that Ramey did not refer to any "press release" from the RAAF, but did refer to the "news frenzy".

The army didn't admit ownership of the press release. They didn't say it wasn't theirs, either. They ignored it.

Perhaps you will accept that as the actual expression of their embarrassment. That is a viable opinion, although it is not mine.

Regards,

Don

Lance said...

Nitram,

It is pointless to do this exercise but here you go. Can you not be bothered to read any of the five million times we have spelled this out?

I think the skeptics are suggesting that Marcel knew the items were balloons, foil, balsa wood sticks, weird tape, maybe another device.

But he also believed (for various reasons, including the news frenzy) this the collection of junk might have been part of the mystery everyone was talking about. Newspaper stories of the time had folks finding the same kind of junk and calling those flying disks as well.

So our postulation is that Marcel thought that he might have found one of the disk contraptions--not a flying saucer but a flying something.

The believers keep trotting out your question but as you can see, against what we are actually suggesting, it is a straw man.

You say:

"You know that most (if not all) of the people on "KR's" team are smart.

Doesn't mean they have it right... but they are intelligent."

Uh, no... I don't agree. It isn't Kevin's team anyway he isn't on the team anymore.

Kevin is certainly smart and I admire him. I also think that Kevin is fair about evidence for the most part.

I also admire David Rudiak. But he is quite unfair about the evidence and he spins a conspiracy fantasy world that isn't supported by anything other than David's own will to believe..

David is very smart (certainly smarter than me) but he is also completely committed as an advocate, not in any way interested in finding the truth (you might read the comments for the Portage post here for insight as to how Rudiak works--it isn't pretty).

Dead silence on the rest of them.

Lance

Lance said...

Don,

Yep and I suggest that

"Press Frenzy" = press frenzy over the Roswell Statement.

Lance

Don said...

Lance: ""Press Frenzy" = press frenzy over the Roswell Statement."

We agree on that. I am not sure why you thought I didn't. It looks like you agree with me that the army neither affirmed nor denied the "press release", but instead ignored it. That is not the same thing as 'retracting' the "press release".

The army couldn't "retract" something that wasn't theirs to retract. But the army didn't deny it wasn't theirs, either.

If I were a skeptic and this were another subject, I would say, they didn't hardly think about it at all. It just wasn't a big deal. It wasn't important. So, get over it.

I understand how important it is to skeptics the notion of "retraction" is. It is part of the ET debate. Leave me out of it.

I think it means something that the army ignored Haughts Statement. So did the Daily Record, it comes to mind.

All the evidence we have that Haut wrote the press release comes from George Walsh, we are told by the AP. That's it. Every other instance you just thought of is post-1978.

You read it in the papers.

Regards,

Don

Lance said...

Don,

Your reply doesn't make sense (to me).

You say that Ramey didn't refer to any press release, just press frenzy.

I suggest press frenzy=press frenzy over press release.

These things are so close that marking a distinction seems hopelessly pedantic. And worthless.

Lance

Don said...

Lance it is worthless to someone who sees Roswell through the lens of ET. No problem. Like I said, I understand.

Regards,

Don

Lance said...

Don,

Well, certainly don't bother to explain it.

Don't know what this lens of E.T means...if you think skeptics and saucer buff stand on the same ground, you are mistaken.


Lance

Don said...

I'm just reading the papers, Lance. I didn't write the news stories.

You are correct. What I've written is worthless to you because it doesn't refer to the subjects of the ET debate. 'No ET, no interest in Roswell' is what you skeptics share with the advocates.

Is that clearer?

Regards,

Don

David Rudiak said...

Lance wrote... I also admire David Rudiak. But he is quite unfair about the evidence and he spins a conspiracy fantasy world that isn't supported by anything other than David's own will to believe..


Pot, kettle, black. Debunkers are more than unfair about the actual evidence, spinning their own conspiracy fantasy world that is not supported by anything other than their own will to believe or disbelievbe.

Lance can not believe or accept that Robert Sheaffer blatantly fabricated a meteor fireball report and instead Lance defends the logical absurdity that a witness can not distinguish minutes from seconds plus unable to tell a starlike object in brightness from a huge meteor fireball lighting up the ground like daylight.

And I still have not heard a peep from him about Sheaffer leaving out all the Spaur Neff testimony of the object hanging stationary over their heads for about a minute blotting out the sky and blinding them with its brilliance, obviously NOT a fireball.

cda said...

I do not think we should bring the Portage County case into this blog. It belongs elsewhere.

Regarding whether Marcel realised what the debris was (with virtual certainty), I have always maintained that indeed he and Brazel did strongly believe that it was 'balloon plus kite' debris. Otherwise, as I have said above, why on earth would they try to assemble the stuff to make a kite?

That little quote, from the RDR, is a giveaway as to the identity of the debris. The FW photos are further strong evidence of it.

But, I repeat, there is nothing anyone can do if certain conspiratorial-minded persons insist the pics were faked as all part of a grand cover-up, people were given death threats, told what to say to the press, and so on.

As for that pathetic scrap of paper in Ramey's hand that reveals the truth..... [words fail me, just as the words on that scrap of paper fail me!]

Yes I do believe in Mogul. No it does NOT explain everything. Nor does it have to. Nor can you expect it to, 47 years after the event. But it is still good enough for me.

Don said...

David: "Debunkers are more than unfair about the actual evidence..."

Unfair? Lance holds me responsible for news stories written in 1947 that he doesn't like. I was only two years old, then.

Best Regards,

Don

Don said...

CDA: "Yes I do believe in Mogul."

Do you think Ramey expected or suspected what was found was a Mogul flight?

***

The youngsters may not know this, but I know both Kevin and David do, and without a doubt Gilles does...it used to be the case that skeptics argued there was no official Roswell press release, that the whole thing was concocted by Haut or Marcel or both.

So, the fact that Ramey and the army never acknowledged the press release would have been, for skeptics back in the last century, evidence the army never said anything about the Brazel object being a flying disc.

Lance ought to provide a list of what the skeptics' position is nowadays, so that I can avoid quoting those news stories that contravene the truths those intelligent regular folk know.

If I quote the news stories about the army and navy cracking down on saucer stories and the silencing of Roswell principals, that does not mean I am a "conspiracy theorist".

I didn't write the news in 1947.

Regards,

Don

Don said...

There are subtleties about the publication of the press release that get lost in the discussions. Haughts Statement did not appear on the wires, whole and complete, at 2:26pm MT. It took 15 minutes according to DXR54 for the press release to be pulled together by wire service editors.

At 2:26, the Daily Illini reported what had happened:

"The army air forces here today announced a flying disk had been found on a ranch near Roswell, and was in army possession."

During the following 15 minutes, more details were propagated. The Illini reported the source information for the story ("radio reporter") wasn't on the wire until 5:09 CT.

This is why it is important to track down the earliest published stories. Among them you will find stories that do not have the whole account of the story in the press release. Because of the details they contain and what details are not there, we can estimate when the papers went to press.

What we find is that Haughts Statement, the press release whole, was not the earliest story published. Dick Pearce was right. It was the "first sober announcement".

Ramey blamed the press for good reason. Bloecher was actually right.

Thank you for your time.

Regards,

Don

KRandle said...

All -

Ramey knew nothing about Mogul because there was no need for him to know about balloon launches in New Mexico. They did not affect his mission.

cda said...

"Lance ought to provide a list of what the skeptics' position is nowadays".

Why should he? Skeptics may take different positions on aspects of the case, but the big thing we do agree on is that no ET vehicle was involved.

Re the silencing of witnesses, there would be no 'conspiracy theory' if the USAF were still investigating the case in July '47 and wanted witnesses to keep quiet in case it turned out to be some new US military vehicle under development.

But if, as certain persons tell us, the USAF had soon determined (by some amazing method) that it was an ET craft, then told witnesses they must literally never talk about it, this DOES constitute a conspiracy.

Needless to say, I do not go along with the second of these.

I agree with Kevin that Ramey had no knowledge of Mogul.

cda said...

Don:

Please spell 'Haut' correctly. This is not July 1947!

Don said...

CDA, I am not responsible for what was published in 1947. I wasn't a AP editor in 1947.

(insert usenetty 'sigh' here)

Regards,

Don

Don said...

Kevin, the reason I ask whether Ramey might know of Mogul was a comment in one of the Ft Worth stories that Ramey had said there were other devices attached to the balloon besides the rawin, but that they had not been found at the site.

Or, at least, I think I read that in an AP account. I'm looking for it now.

Mogul was referred to that August in another case. I don't know if any of those folks had a need to know. It was shared with the FBI, I believe.

Regards,

Don

Don said...

Here it is, from July 9, UP, not AP, story in the Toledo Blade:

"No Instruments Found

Governor (sic) Ramey made a special radio broadcast over a Ft Worth radio station...he said the kite originally carried instruments, but none was found with the wreckage."

Regards,

Don

cda said...

Don:

Strange statement for Ramey to make. If no instruments were found with the wreckage, how did Ramey know the kite had carried them?

This is simply an example of an unreliable newspaper report. Either that or it is a reliable newspaper report of an unreliable radio announcement.

Or perhaps those missing ropes or cables had been recovered after all, and that Ramey assumed 'instruments' were thus attached.

Hmmm.....

Don said...

CDA, I haven't found a second example of it, so it does stand alone so far, and could be just a screwed up sentence. It is part of one of the substantial reports from the UP, not just a paragraph or two on page 4. The 'Governor' error only occurs at that point; it is General Ramey otherwise.

The other item was written about by Nick Redfern a few years ago. I checked his references in PBB, and there was mention of "Operation Mogul" by someone at AMC (I think). It was a hoax case. Some junk on the ground with microphones glued on. I don't know if those people had a need to know.

What keeps me on the fence about Roswell is the resistance referred to in the Ft Worth stories. As to rawins and balloons being mistaken for flying discs, according to the AP, both the army and civilian meteorologists quoted did not accept that they could explain all the recent sightings. Also the UP refers to "diehards" among the "principals" in the Roswell story not accepting Ramey's conclusion that the object was a rawin and weather balloon. I'd like to know who they were and what they thought it was.

Regards,

Don

David Rudiak said...

Ramey saying "no instruments" was standard UP reporting of the Roswell story, quoting Ramey speaking on local radio:

http://www.roswellproof.com/UP_Standard_July9.html

Note here the continual references to a SINGLE balloon and a SINGLE radar target, which was always Ramey's and his men's official story and all that Ramey showed in his office:

Headquarters of the 8th army at Fort Worth, Tex., announced that the wreckage of a tin-foil covered object found on a New Mexico ranch was nothing more than the remnants of a weather balloon...

Brigadier General Roger B. Ramey, commander of the 8th air force, said at Fort Worth that he believed the object was the "remnant of a weather balloon and a radar reflector," and was "nothing to be excited about."

... The devices, composed of a 50 inch synthetic rubber balloon and a star-like device that looks like a box kite, can attain a height of 60,000 to 70,000 feet. They may drift any place. High altitude pressure usually explodes them. Instruments they carry are set to break loose at medium altitudes and flatten down near the observation station.
Ramey made a special radio broadcast over a Fort Worth radio station to deny the object found in New Mexico was a "flying disc." He said it was the "remnants of a tinfoil covered box kite and a rubber balloon." He said the kite originally carried instruments, but that none were found with the wreckage.


I don't see anything remotely Mogul related here, other than early Moguls were made of MULTIPLEl weather balloons and OCCASIONALLY carried radar targets (of the early NM Moguls, ONLY Flight #8 July 3, 1947, was tracked by radar).

"Instruments" is used generically here. The generic Army and civilian weather balloon carried a radiosonde transmitter, batteries, a hoop, and a parachute (for gently lowering radiosonde to ground for possible reuse). There were about 80 such stations in the U.S. at the time:

http://www.roswellproof.com/balloon_use.html

So multi-balloon Mogul, no instruments, no balloon twine, just a singular weather balloon and radar target--no Mogul here. What Ramey displayed doesn't even match what Brazel later described (no rubber strips, no flower tape, etc.). Brazel even said what he found didn't resembled in any way other weather balloons he had found.

But a weather balloon is a weather balloon is a W.B., and Ramey showed a W.B., not rubber strips. So how could Ramey's W.B. have come from Roswell or be connected in any way to Mogul?

I and others have spoken to Ramey's weather officer Irving Newton, a big Roswell skeptic, but also a big Mogul skeptic, saying all he saw was an ordinary, singular weather balloon used by the weather services.

Don said...

I don't understand the skeptics position on Mogul. It seems clear that the #4 rig flew as #5, and that there was no other balloon rig that went up with a rawin at the time.

To answer David Halperin's (I recommend his interesting blog) question: No. We don't need to consider whether Moore lied or whether his math was wrong in order to make a case against Mogul. All that is irrelevant since there was no Mogul flight.

Few if any skeptics or advocates agree with me that there was nothing unusual about the press release, that it was the mechanism of propagation which led the press to assume something that was not there.

However there are two things that need an explanation:

1) The "press frenzy" did not motivate Ramey to have the object sent to "higher headquarters". That decision had been taken before the press release was written. Although Ft Worth may not have been the original "higher headquarters". That may have been Wright Field.

2) In Roswell town there was a noon announcement, but we know there was no national story until two and one half hours later.

If the wire services sat on the story for that long, what were they doing? Confirming it with the AAF? That seems likely, but did it happen? There is nothing in the stories to even suggest that.

If they had that much time to mull it over, would the story have come out piecemeal, as the Daily Illini has it? I think not. It seems to me that they got the story not long before 2:26pm MT.

So, what was the "noon announcement" and where did it come from? It is very specific: RAAF captures flying saucer on ranch in Roswell region. There is no mistaking it. There was no story coming piecemeal across the wires to misinterpret.

Regards,

Don

eBikesRC said...

Coming from a different angle of "playing the odds" what is the likelihood an ET-Alien is going to crash from outer space to begin with? Also, the odds of crashing near Military Bases and Test Ranges? You guys really come across as debating the wrong evidence or lack thereof to an outsider looking in. The simple fact is it is well beyond highly unlikely an ET-Alien travels light-years and then crashes in this Military Base and test area. Even less likely the ET-Alien crashes once inside and flying around the lower atmosphere, so, my advice, is unscrew your microscopic lunacy and play the real odds for that they are.

Frack, this was/is some kind of man-made debris whether hoax and/or press release lunacy doesn't matter. That happens every single day multiple times. HUMAN debris, HUMAN caused. The media is stupid and headline oriented.

Debate and investigate something worth doing, seriously.

KRandle said...

eBikesRC -

Do you have any theories about what this Earth-based technology might be? Have you been to this area in New Mexico and looked at what might have been going on in the area that would be of interest to an alien race, which would explain their presence?

I'm saying that all the terrestrial explanations have been eliminated (at this time) so we now begin to look at the exotic. What would you have us do?

eBikesRC said...
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eBikesRC said...
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eBikesRC said...

I deleted my previous two comments above, since much of it drifted off-topic and got a bit “hot”.

Kevin R. wrote: "I'm saying that all the terrestrial explanations have been eliminated (at this time) so we now begin to look at the exotic. What would you have us do?"

Unless you have some 'hard evidence' available such as fragments from the debris, not hidden at some Above Top Secret location or inside a patio slab, then move-on. Why? Mainly, for these reasons...

1) Falcon (Doty), Moore, and others (Condor?) involved in Roswell have already 'proven' themselves to be frauds and are tainted by it. Regardless, everything Roswell is now a successful mythology and money business. It has a life of its own that buries whatever the truth is, so not many will ever care about the eyewitness confusion. PSYOPS won! Accept defeat. :)

2) ET-UFO studies have definitely proven to drive people into 'obsession', 'insanity', sociopathic agendas, business agendas, Military PSYOPS, spycraft, and are constantly too focused, repetitively so, on certain events or details that can't be proven one-way or another. Too many manipulated agendas built-up over time regarding Roswell. It's a hall of mirrors to isolate the truth.

3) You say eye-witness testimonial evidence is good enough in a court of law, but proving ET-UFO's has 'nothing' to do with that. Eyesight, camera optics, reflections, distortions, artifacts, aircraft, atmospheric phenomena and distortion, satellites, top secret aerial objects, birds, hoaxing, etc. and believing destroys any reliability on most eyewitness accounts. Add to the fact it is highly UNLIKELY many of these Roswell witnesses could really know and identify what ET-UFO fragments could look like. Paranoia was in the air for years over warfare, and the Soviet threat was deemed our next enemy. Lots of PSYOPS reasons to change and cover-up a screw-up in the headlines!!!

4) Surely you know by now how fake and entertainment based ET-UFO phenomena is explained on the Discovery and other such channels, History, Science, etc. I will say these programs along with TV-movies like Close Encounters, X-Files, Contact, Taken, and I'm just scratching the surface, have brainwashed people about ET-UFO Alien Agendas that are known to come from Military Intelligence PSYOPS, Blue Book, eye-witness accounts, and Science Fiction. Mirage Men seems to have "outed" Doty on the Serpo story too that is already known in similar storytelling. There were certainly plenty of science fiction ideas to latch onto in those old days too. War of the Worlds, etc.

5) To keep focusing on the available evidence about Roswell stinks of PSYOPS money making agendas and/or any of the above reasons I mentioned. You're wasting your very valuable time and limited lifespan by continuing to focus on this topic for decades now IF you think you're going to change public opinion at this point. Seriously! In fact, many may begin to think, you may be a great "patsy" or "insider" for Military Intelligence by wasting valuable resources and time on this subject and sidetracking the truth from being found elsewhere.

Patsy (or useful asset) does not mean you're not sincere or stupid, as the ideal patsy is very smart and focused, and very convincing too! You're one of the best investigators, for sure, but you may be wasting the majority of people's time with Roswell except for “scholarship” or historical purposes to prove some tiny details that can still be disputed honestly. IMO.

Btw, please don't think I'm trying to personally attack you with my posts. I'm not a "debunker". My mind is very open, BUT I'm ALWAYS going with Military Top Secret Craft and PSYOPS as the first order of elimination before ET-Aliens are involved. It's far worse now-days, because I can think of multimillionaires to billionaires to TV-Hollywood having their own ET-Aliens Hoax Agendas already added to the Military Industrial Complex ones too.