This has evolved in the
last few days and it’s not the original theory that I was going to point out. I
had noticed that most of those who published the typical Mogul array train used
the composition of Flight No. 2, which was launched on the east coast, and
contained several rawin radar targets. The first “successful” flight in New
Mexico, Flight No. 5, contained no rawin targets. According to what Charles
Moore, one of the engineers working at Alamogordo, New Mexico, launch site in
what we now know is a part of Project Mogul, told me early in the investigation
was that Flight No. 4 was the same configuration as Flight No. 5.
Since I have been
involved with attempting to understand all this for about thirty years, and
although the original purpose was to discuss the composition of Flight No. 4,
this has become something a bit more complicated. The first problem encountered
is Dr. Albert Crary’s field notes and diary. Crary was, of course, the man in
charge of the experiments. According to that document, as published in multiple
locations and dated June 4:
Out to Tularosa Range and fired
charges between 00 [midnight] and 06 this am. No balloon flights again on
account of clouds. Flew regular sono buoy up in cluster of balloons and had
good luck on receiver of the ground but poor on plane. Out with Thompson pm.
Shot charges from 1800 [6:00 p.m.] to 2400 [midnight].
This seems to suggest
there was no Flight No. 4. However, it mentions the cluster of balloons that
lifted a sonobuoy for an experiment testing the ability of the microphone to
detect explosions on the ground. In the documentation produced by the New York
University that ran the experiments in New Mexico, there is some information
about the composition of these clusters. Unfortunately for us, that information
is somewhat contradictory.
Flight No. 5 is listed
in New York University Technical Report No. 1, Constant Level Balloon
and dated April 1, 1948, as Figure 31, “Train Assembly, flight 5,”
(meteorological cluster). This does suggest that a cluster of balloons might,
in fact, be of the same composition as the true flights. It means that it can
be argued that when Crary mentioned they flew a cluster, it might have been the
balloons that were to have been launched earlier in the day as Flight No. 4.
However, it should also be noted that there were no rawin radar targets on
Flight No. 5. And finally, there is additional information about the
composition of Flight No. 4, which will be noted later.
The other complication
is the requirement that the flights be preceded by a NOTAM, that is a Notice to
Airmen. These were issued by the CAA, forerunner to the FAA, and provided
information about conditions at airfields and other temporary problems that
might adversely affect aerial navigation. The launching of a long array of
balloons, especially those that were about six hundred feet long, could present
just such a hazard to aerial navigation. This becomes an important part of the
story.
A final note about
Flight No. 4. It does not appear in the documentation in the technical report.
Table VII, labeled, “Summary 0f NYU Constant-Level Balloon Flights,” jumps from
Flight No. 1 (April 3, 1947) to Flight No. 5 (June 5, 1947). In the critique
section for Flight No. 5, it said, “First successful flight carrying a heavy
load. 3 Lifter balloons, 26 main balloons.”
Charles Moore, who
received an honorary doctoral degree from New Mexico Institute of Mining and
Technology in Socorro, New Mexico, where he taught, was interviewed about
Project Mogul by several UFO researchers, military officers and reporters about
the situation in Alamogordo, New Mexico in June and July 1947.
Charles Moore at a microfilm reader reviewing the winds aloft data I supplied. Photo copyright by Kevin Randle |
Moore would become the
leading proponent to the idea that Flight No. 4 was the culprit in the Roswell
UFO crash case. On March 16, 1995, he published The New York University
Balloon Flights During Early June 1947. It was his belief that one of the
array trains from their project was responsible for the debris found by Mack
Brazil and later recovered by members of the 509th Bomb Group
stationed at the Roswell Army Air Field. He wrote in the abstract, “One of
these, undocumented Flight #4, was last reported over Arabela, NM. From recent
examination of the Weather Bureau winds aloft reports and of the ground tracks
of the two subsequent NYU flights, it appears that Flight #4 is a likely
candidate to explain the debris later recovered on the Foster Ranch about 23
miles to the north-northwest of Arabela.”
Of importance to
understanding the sequence of events on June 4, Moore wrote, “One
interpretation of the June 4 entry [from Crary’s diary] is that the launch
scheduled for shortly after 0230 MST [emphasis added] was canceled
because of clouds but, after the sky cleared around dawn [emphasis
added], the cluster of already-inflated balloons was released, later than
planned.”
Later in the report, he
provided an explanation for some of the discrepancies that had been noticed. He
wrote:
The June 4th flight
apparently caused a change in our method of tracking. Up to that time, we
planned to use radar targets and the flight train configuration show in Figure
2 (except that no radiosondes were to be used in the New Mexican operations).
Since we had spent the time after our arrival at Alamogordo in preparing a full
scale flight, I think that we would not have improvised on the morning of
June 4, [emphasis added], after the gear was ready and the balloons were
inflated; we would have launched the full-scale cluster, complete with the
targets for tracking by the Watson Lab radar. The tracking was essential
whenever an acoustic instrument was flown so that the microphone location could
be determined, relative to the surface and air-borne explosions Crary created.
I have a memory
[emphasis added] of J. R. Smith watching the June 4th cluster
through a theodolite on a clear, sunny morning and that Capt. Dyad reported
that the Watson Lab radar had lost track of the targets while Smith had them in
view. It is also my recollection [emphasis added] that the cluster of
balloons was tracked to about 75 miles from Alamogordo [emphasis added]
by the crew in the B-17. As I remember this flight [emphasis added], the
B-17 crew terminated their chase, while the balloons were still airborne (and
J.R. was still watching them), in the vicinity of Capitan Peak, Arabela and
Bluewater, NM. … From the note in Crary’s diary, the reason for the termination
of the chase was due to the poor reception of the telemetered acoustic information
by the receiver on the plane. We never recovered this flight and, because
the sonobuoy [emphasis added], the flight gear and the balloons were all
expendable equipment, we had no further concern about them but began
preparation for the next flight.
Since we obtained no altitude
information from this flight because of inadequate tracking by the Watson Lab
radar, we pressured Dr. Peoples into letting us carry radiosondes on the
subsequent flights. It is interesting to note that the drawing of the balloon
train for Flight#5 shows a radiosonde but no radar targets; after Flight #4, I
think [emphasis added] we no longer relied on them for our primary
performance and location information.
Finally, Moore provides
some analysis of the flight tracks as he calculated them based on the winds
aloft data. He wrote:
However, to land on the Foster
Range, it is necessary that Flight #4 had a flight profile when an entry into
the stratosphere and a transport to the west of its tropospheric track, just as
were experienced by Flights #5 and #6. Since we planned to make all of these
early cluster flights with the Flight #2 configuration we adopted after our
learning experiences in Pennsylvania, I think [emphasis added] that
Flight #4 probably performed about as Flight #5 did and had an adequately long
residence in the stratosphere.
Given the nature of
Moore’s paper, and given the expertise of Charles Moore, it would seem, at
first glance, that this does explain the debris recovered by Mack Brazel in
early July 1947, and subsequently taken to Roswell and eventually to the 509th
Bomb Group.
But that wasn’t the end
of the discussion. There were discrepancies in the report. These seemed to
contradict part of Moore’s analysis. First, was the timing of the balloon
launch. Documentation available in the Air Force report, The Roswell Report,
Fact vs. Fiction in the New Mexico Desert, made it clear that the
regulations under which the NYU team operated in New Mexico, prohibited flights
at night and in cloudy weather. The long arrays, although shorter than those
used on the east coast, were still considered a hazard to aerial navigation.
That means, quite simply, that a launch time of 0230 hours, that is, 2:30 a.m.,
would be at night. This means that the flight was not scheduled for an early
morning launch and the notation that it was cancelled then, at 2:30, is
inaccurate.
The "official" balloon flight records as published by NYU and the Air Force. Please note that there is no entry for Flight No. 4. |
It should also be noted
that the idea of a 0230 hours launch probably originated in the notation for
June 3 launch. Crary’s notes said, “Up at 0230 am to fly balloon but abandoned
due to cloudy skies.” That doesn’t mean the launch was set to 2:30, but that
Crary rose at 2:30 to prepare for a later launch, but the clouds forced a
cancelation.
Instead, when written
that the flight was cancelled due to clouds, that was at dawn. It means that
the flight did not take place then. It would have been released later in the
morning. Unfortunately, this changes the atmospheric dynamic because, according
to Moore, a front moved through the area about dawn and the winds aloft changed.
If that is true, then the estimated path of Flight No. 4, would have been
significantly different and would have landed nowhere near the Foster ranch. In
that case, Flight No. 4 is eliminated as the culprit for the debris.
That isn’t the end of
the problems. According to the chart published by Moore in the book UFO
Crash at Roswell: Genesis of a Modern Myth. Flight No. 4 took flight at
3:00 a.m. The Summary of New York University’s First Balloon Flight Attempts
for Watson Laboratories in 1947, that Moore included with his analysis,
clearly lists the date and time of release as “4 June (probably around 0300
MST).”
The balloon flight records as recreated by Moore that now includes data for Flight No. 4. It does not match the official record. |
But that contradicts
his earlier report in which he said the flight was cancelled at 2:30 because of
clouds, but then was launched about dawn, when the clouds cleared. As noted, if
it was launched that late, or just after 5:00 a.m., then the atmospheric
conditions he wrote about excluded the flight.
It is noted there that
there was no data for the maximum altitude, that the tracking was “theodolite
to Arabela”, the flight duration was unknown, but (calculated duration 466
min), recovery was the Foster Ranch? and “telemetry failed over Arabela; B-17
pilot then terminated tracking.”
But again, reading from
Moore’s documentation in his first report, we learn, based on his language,
that he was speculating about the timing and what must have happened. He had
nothing to support his speculations other than his memory, which, he himself
contradicts.
In fact, he provides
more information about all this. I had raised the specter of those NOTAMs. As
mentioned, these things had nothing of historical significance and were
probably destroyed when they expired. I had contacted several FAA facilities
that might have records but was unsuccessful in recovering any. However, the
question of NOTAMs did serve another purpose and that was more information
about Flight No. 4.
In a letter dated
August 10, 1995, Moore, explaining the situation in Alamogordo on June 4, 1947,
wrote:
The jury-rigged flight
#4 of meteorological balloons [emphasis added] that
we launched as AMC contractors from Alamogordo Army Air Field on July 4, 1974
[sic] was no big deal, it was a test flight, the first in a series and there
was no announcement of our plans, either on base or to the Army Air Forces
authorities. Since we launched from just within the restricted air space
associated with the White Sands Proving Ground and expected the balloons to
rise above the civil air space, we did not notify CAA in El Paso. As I
remember [emphasis added], we launched before sunrise without our Watson
Laboratories associates and the B-17 crew knowing about the ascent. This flight
was not successful [emphasis added] due to the failure of the Watson Lab
radar to track the balloons and the poor transmission of the acoustic data
caused by use of out-dated World War II batteries.
This language changes
the perspective of Flight No. 4. Now it was jury-rigged rather than a late
launch of originally prepared array for the flight. In other words, on March 16,
1995, he wrote that he didn’t think they would improvise, but in the August 10,
1995, letter, he said it was “jury-rigged.” Moore later would say that Flight
No. 4 was a full flight complete with rawin radar targets, but Crary’s notes
suggest a cluster that carried only a sonobuoy. It mentioned nothing about
rawin targets. It was only Moore’s undocumented speculation that equipped the
cluster of balloons with the radar targets.
Let’s recap what we
know. Flights of the balloon arrays were prohibited by rule and regulation from
launch at night or in cloudy weather. Crary’s diary suggests that the June 4
flight was cancelled at dawn because of clouds. Moore wrote that the flight was
cancelled around 2:30 a.m. because of clouds, but the clouds cleared at dawn,
so the flight was then launched. Later, he wrote, that the flight was launched
“probably around 0300 MST”. But given everything, including his changing times
in his own writings, we know this is untrue.
We have Moore’s claim
that Flight No. 4 was a duplicate of Flight No. 2, and this unmodified flight
took place on June 4. But Moore also wrote that Flight No. 4 was jury-rigged,
which suggests that it was modified. It was not a duplicate of Flight No. 2.
But to drop debris on the Foster ranch, he needed the rawin targets as shown in
the diagrams of Flight #2.
The final point here is
that Moore himself, wrote that they hadn’t bothered to file a NOTAM because,
“Since we launched from just within the restricted air space associated with
the White Sands Proving Ground and expected the balloons to rise above the
civil air space, we did not notify the CAA in El Paso.”
He also wrote, “As I
remember, we launched before sunrise with only our Watson Laboratories
associates and the B-17 crew knowing about the ascent. This flight was not
successful due to the failure of the Watson Lab radar to track the balloons and
poor transmission of the acoustic data caused by the use of out-dated World War
II batteries.”
This is quite revealing
because later, Moore would claim that Flight No. 4 was as successful as Flight
No. 5. In the book, UFO Crash at Roswell: Genesis of a Modern Myth, he
wrote, “I think that Flight #4 used our best equipment and probably performed
as well as or better than Flight #5.” If it had performed as well as or better
than Flight #5, then wouldn’t it have been the first successful flight, which
would have provided the various data points needed?
Here is a direct
contradiction provided by Moore, who apparently forgot what he had written
earlier. He can’t have it both ways. Either Flight #4 was unsuccessful, which
is why it wasn’t listed, or it was as successful as Flight #5, and it would
have been listed as the first successful flight.
What we see is that as
the interest in the Roswell case grew, Moore began to modify what he
“remembered” to keep up with the data being developed. If there were no rawin
targets, then how did one end up in General Ramey’s office with the claim that
it was Roswell debris? If there were no rawin targets, then there were no
large, metallic looking components to fool Mack Brazel and later Jesse Marcel.
If the flight wasn’t launched until after dawn, then the proposed track, based
on the winds aloft data, wouldn’t have come near the Brazel (Foster) ranch.
The degraded rawin radar reflector displayed in General Ramey's office. Where did it originate? |
Moore himself was
originally less than sure about this proposed track. Using the weather data
that I originally supplied to him (and acknowledged in his early report and in
letters to me, even requesting that I send him additional information charts)
plotted a track that suggested they lost the balloons within seventeen miles of
the Foster ranch. But in some of the original correspondence about this, said
that they lost contact with Flight No. 4 about seventeen miles from the ranch,
which is not quite the same thing.
Another analysis of the
weather data shows that by tweaking the variables in the data, the balloons end
up, not in New Mexico, but more than 150 miles away. Moore himself acknowledged
this when he noted that a minor change in one of the variables could have
placed the array 150 miles away, which would have put the landing site
somewhere in Oklahoma or Kansas.
What all this analysis
does is ignore some of the witness testimony. Let’s not forget that the field
where the debris was found was one that Brazel was in every other day and
sometimes every day. That field was one of the watering locations for the
livestock. Others, such as Tommy Tyree, who sometimes worked for Brazel as a
ranch hand, told Don Schmitt and me that Brazel complained about all the debris
that was so densely packed that he was forced to drive the sheep around it to
the water. He wondered who was going to
clean it all up. Why then, did it take him more than a month to get from the
ranch near Corona to Roswell to report the find if it was the remains of Flight
No. 4?
Mack Brazel picked up
samples of the debris and took it to the Roswell sheriff, George Wilcox. We
know this because we have eyewitness testimony telling us that. Jesse Marcel
saw that debris in Wilcox’s office before returning to talk to Colonel Blanchard.
Apparently, Marcel was unable to identify that debris. Blanchard told Marcel to
take Sheridan Cavitt with him. This is important, because they, Marcel and
Cavitt, returned to the sheriff’s office to meet Brazel.
Cavitt was unable to
identify the debris in the office. However, Cavitt told Colonel Richard Weaver,
that when he saw the debris in the ranch pasture, recognized it as a balloon.
But Cavitt told Don Schmitt and me that he had never been involved in the
recovery of any balloons because he was too busy with his investigations.
The point is that
before either Marcel or Cavitt followed Brazel back to the ranch, they had the
opportunity to see debris prior to making the long drive to the ranch. But they
couldn’t identify the debris in the sheriff’s office.
Bill Brazel talked
about a gouge that ran down the center of that pasture. Bud Payne also saw the
gouge and the military personnel on the site. Jesse Marcel talked about a large
area of debris that was three-quarters of a mile long and two hundred yards
wide. General Arthur Exon flew over the site and mentioned tracks from several
military vehicles, again suggesting something more than a Mogul array. All of
this suggests something more substantial than the remains of a weather balloon
array train.
Bill Brazel also told
Don and me about the items he had found in the field in the weeks after the
crash. He said that his father, Mack Brazel, told him the debris looked like
some of that contraption he had found. Items that resembled fiber optics, a piece
of material that was light like balsa but so strong he couldn’t cut it with his
knife, and, of course, the foil-like material that when wadded up would return
to its original shape. There was nothing like that on the Mogul arrays,
Others reported similar
things including Sallye Tadolini, who talked about the foil-like material, as
did Frankie Rowe. Jesse Marcel, Sr. and Jesse Marcel, Jr., described the
debris, none of it that resembled anything found in the Mogul arrays.
I could continue in
this vein, but it is something of a digression. To understand what fell on the
ranch, it is necessary to understand what the witnesses who saw the debris and
the pasture said. Charles Moore said that if there was a gouge, then Mogul was
not the culprit.
We now have enough
information, much of it supplied by Moore, to eliminate Flight No. 4. The
documentation available establishes that the flight was not a full array but a
jury-rigged combination of balloons and a sonobuoy. It was not expected to
leave the confines of the White Sands Proving Ground which is the excuse for
not issuing a NOTAM according to Moore. It did not contain any rawin targets
and it did not fall on the Brazel ranch. For those who examine the totality of
the evidence, they will see the problems with Flight No. 4 as the answer. For
those with an open mind, they will see that there is no known terrestrial
answer that accounts for all the facts from the eyewitnesses and the
documentation available to us today. Eliminate the misinformation and the outright
lies, and the puzzle remains. Just what did Mack Brazel find?